--- title: "Sickness case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sickness ($8.67) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.94% from 15 items with odds, observed 91.06% over 9,789 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness rendered: 2026-11-11T15:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sickness](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sickness A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness?window=all) Price · $8.67 · 12.39 coins Advertised RTP · 90.94% · EV $7.89 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.06% · 9,789 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.84% ±13.43 1,255 openings 7 days · 90.55% ±5.18 8,452 openings 30 days · 91.06% ±4.81 9,789 openings since tracking started · 91.06% ±4.81 9,789 openings 72.0% 86.0% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness?window=24h) | 1,255 | 85.84% ±13.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness?window=7d) | 8,452 | 90.55% ±5.18 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness) | 9,789 | 91.06% ±4.81 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sickness?window=all) | 9,789 | 91.06% ±4.81 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,795 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $743 1,061 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $272 388 coins | 1.7% | 7 | 4.9 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $223 318 coins | 1.4% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $131 187 coins | 3.3% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $76.30 109 coins | 29.0% | 293 | 293.8 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| mousesports (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 200 | $73.50 105 coins | 4.7% | 41 | 49.0 | 0.84× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 50 | $51.42 73.45 coins | 13.0% | 226 | 195.9 | 1.15× | | [Sticker \| Hobbit (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hobbit-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 50 | $40.75 58.22 coins | 10.3% | 206 | 195.9 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $34.17 48.82 coins | 4.3% | 86 | 98.0 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $23.87 34.1 coins | 24.2% | 760 | 783.6 | 0.97× | | [Sticker \| hazed (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hazed-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 1 in 31 | $17.01 24.3 coins | 6.9% | 335 | 312.5 | 1.07× | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,951 | 1959.0 | 1.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,938 | 1959.0 | 0.99× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,941 | 1959.0 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,990 | 1959.0 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sickness) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [Em1grantas](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Em1grantas) $8.67 12.39 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-field-tested) Hidden $8.67 12.39 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Mang3kyou](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Mang3kyou) $8.67 12.39 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.67 | 90.94% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.65 | 90.92% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $8.65 | 90.90% | 15 | | 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $8.67 | 90.93% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.66 | 90.89% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed high 0.0% covert 11.1% classified 1.1% Legendary 0.2% remarkable 0.5% exotic 5.2% extraordinary 2.0% consumer 80.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.94 on average: an expected loss of $9.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt