---
title: "Sidearms case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sidearms ($5.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.95% from 15 items with odds, observed 85.56% over 12.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sidearms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sidearms

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms?window=all)

Price · $5.01 · 7.15 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.95% · EV $4.55 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.56% · 12.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.83% ±15.22 1,533 openings

7 days · 85.84% ±6.00 10.2K openings

30 days · 85.56% ±5.39 12.7K openings

since tracking started · 85.56% ±5.39 12.7K openings

79.0% 95.8% 112.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms?window=24h) | 1,533 | 96.83% ±15.2 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms?window=7d) | 10.2K | 85.84% ±6.00 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms) | 12.7K | 85.56% ±5.39 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sidearms?window=all) | 12.7K | 85.56% ±5.39 | −1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $83.30 119 coins | 54.9% | 337 | 379.9 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 4.4% | 38 | 38.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 7.9% | 98 | 88.6 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $21.01 30.02 coins | 4.6% | 113 | 126.6 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.50 13.57 coins | 10.4% | 642 | 633.2 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.74 11.06 coins | 5.1% | 379 | 379.9 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.57 5.1 coins | 3.9% | 621 | 633.2 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.18 4.55 coins | 3.5% | 641 | 633.2 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.32 1.89 coins | 1.7% | 736 | 747.2 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.05 1.5 coins | 1.8% | 1,047 | 1013.1 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.24 0.35 coins | 0.8% | 1,738 | 1773.0 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.18 0.26 coins | 0.3% | 1,017 | 1013.1 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.11 0.16 coins | 0.3% | 1,830 | 1773.0 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.09 0.13 coins | 0.2% | 1,224 | 1266.4 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-field-tested) | 17.1% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,203 | 2165.5 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sidearms)

[P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins $0.11 0.16 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-field-tested) [Kuraz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kuraz) $5.01 7.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins $3.57 5.1 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins $3.57 5.1 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-battle-scarred) [Kuraz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kuraz) $5.01 7.15 coins $0.18 0.26 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-well-worn) Hidden $5.01 7.15 coins $0.09 0.13 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $5.01 | 90.95% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.01 | 90.88% | 15 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $5.00 | 90.97% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.00 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $4.92 | 90.93% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.91 | 90.87% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.90 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.0% classified 6.3% mil spec 21.6% industrial 20.1% restricted 5.0% consumer 8.0% blue 14.0% milspec 8.0% Uncommon 14.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.95 on average: an expected loss of $9.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt