--- title: "Siesta case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Siesta ($5.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.43% over 3,427 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Siesta](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Siesta A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta?window=all) Price · $5.54 · 7.91 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $5.03 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.43% · 3,427 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 34.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.04% ±11.45 294 openings 7 days · 86.80% ±3.54 3,069 openings 30 days · 88.43% ±3.35 3,427 openings since tracking started · 88.43% ±3.35 3,427 openings 75.0% 87.0% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta?window=24h) | 294 | 87.04% ±11.4 | −0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta?window=7d) | 3,069 | 86.80% ±3.54 | −2.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta) | 3,427 | 88.43% ±3.35 | −1.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/siesta?window=all) | 3,427 | 88.43% ±3.35 | −1.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,437 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 100,000 | $151 216 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $129 184 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $109 155 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $106 152 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $99.40 142 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $95.20 136 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $63.41 90.59 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $58.89 84.13 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $36.93 52.75 coins | 7.3% | 29 | 34.4 | 0.84× | | [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $22.59 32.27 coins | 1.1% | 8 | 8.6 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $15.27 21.82 coins | 12.1% | 120 | 137.5 | 0.87× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $11.47 16.39 coins | 18.2% | 262 | 275.0 | 0.95× | | [Sticker \| GODSENT (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-holo-stockholm-2021) | 21.0% | $3.84 5.49 coins | 16.0% | 744 | 721.8 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 35.5% | $3.27 4.67 coins | 23.1% | 1,257 | 1220.1 | 1.03× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 30.0% | $3.26 4.65 coins | 19.4% | 1,011 | 1031.1 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir Nova \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $3.14 4.48 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.36× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=siesta) [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Sticker | GODSENT (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.84 5.49 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-abyssal-apparition-factory-new) [Cow](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cow) $5.54 7.91 coins $15.27 21.82 coins 2.76x 2026-11-11 14:42 UTC [Sticker | GODSENT (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.84 5.49 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) Hidden $5.54 7.91 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [TruiteDeBanka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/TruiteDeBanka) $5.54 7.91 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.54 | 90.92% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.34 | 90.88% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.34 | 90.89% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 21.0% covert 0.1% rare 0.0% epic 0.0% classified 40.5% mil spec 0.3% pink 8.0% restricted 30.0% industrial 0.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt