--- title: "Silenced case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Silenced ($187.03) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 79.13% over 38 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced rendered: 2026-11-11T21:44Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Silenced](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Silenced A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced?window=all) Price · $187.03 · 267 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $170.02 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.13% · 38 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 26 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min 42.0% 85.2% 128.5% **Small sample.** 38 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced?window=7d) | 26 | 85.28% ±42.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced) | 38 | 79.13% ±35.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/silenced?window=all) | 38 | 79.13% ±35.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 38 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 5.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $760 1,086 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $493 704 coins | 17.4% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 50 | $451 644 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 14 | $421 602 coins | 17.3% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.13× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $337 482 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 40 | $295 421 coins | 4.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $241 345 coins | 5.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $180 257 coins | 6.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 20.0% | $113 161 coins | 13.3% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 20.0% | $72.80 104 coins | 8.6% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× | | [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 20.0% | $41.98 59.97 coins | 4.9% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $18.97 27.1 coins | 1.0% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) Hidden $187 267 coins $1,369 1,955 coins 7.32x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=silenced) [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $187 267 coins $113 161 coins 0.60x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $187 267 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) Hidden $187 267 coins $421 602 coins 2.25x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $187 267 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $187 267 coins $18.97 27.1 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $187 267 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $187 267 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [Vuitton](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vuitton) $187 267 coins $113 161 coins 0.60x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [USP-S | Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) Hidden $187 267 coins $41.98 59.97 coins 0.22x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $187 267 coins $113 161 coins 0.60x 2026-11-10 00:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $187 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.3% classified 6.7% covert 37.0% restricted 7.0% industrial 20.0% mil spec 29.0% best hit $1,369 (7.32x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt