--- title: "Sit Ups case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sit Ups ($39.12) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 25 items with odds, observed 92.41% over 331 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sit Ups](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sit Ups A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups?window=all) Price · $39.12 · 55.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $35.56 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.41% · 331 openings, odds method Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 92.48% ±26.90 232 openings 30 days · 92.41% ±22.52 331 openings since tracking started · 92.41% ±22.52 331 openings 65.0% 92.5% 120.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups?window=7d) | 232 | 92.48% ±26.9 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups) | 331 | 92.41% ±22.5 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sit-ups?window=all) | 331 | 92.41% ±22.5 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,333 | $1,144 1,634 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 800 | $454 649 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $435 622 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $424 606 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 571 | $285 407 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 500 | $242 346 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $213 304 coins | 1.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $162 232 coins | 4.6% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.51× | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $151 215 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $111 159 coins | 5.3% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.24× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 77 | $105 150 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $98.70 141 coins | 3.2% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.58× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 14.0% | $77.70 111 coins | 30.6% | 52 | 46.3 | 1.12× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $66.92 95.6 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.01× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $51.58 73.69 coins | 2.9% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $39.55 56.5 coins | 5.6% | 15 | 16.6 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $29.41 42.02 coins | 3.5% | 9 | 14.1 | 0.64× | | [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $24.49 34.98 coins | 3.1% | 15 | 14.9 | 1.01× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $15.79 22.56 coins | 2.7% | 20 | 19.9 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $14.66 20.94 coins | 2.9% | 23 | 23.2 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $13.92 19.89 coins | 1.6% | 16 | 13.2 | 1.21× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 16.0% | $11.45 16.36 coins | 5.2% | 60 | 53.0 | 1.13× | | [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 10.9% | $7.81 11.15 coins | 2.4% | 38 | 36.2 | 1.05× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 18.0% | $4.61 6.58 coins | 2.3% | 48 | 59.6 | 0.81× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sit-ups) [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC [Souvenir XM1014 | Blue Spruce (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-blue-spruce-factory-new) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $13.92 19.89 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $11.45 16.36 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC [P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $24.49 34.98 coins 0.63x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $39.12 55.88 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 14:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $4.61 6.58 coins 0.12x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $11.45 16.36 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) Hidden $39.12 55.88 coins $51.58 73.69 coins 1.32x 2026-11-10 12:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $39.12 | 90.91% | 25 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $39.45 | 90.92% | 25 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $39.89 | 90.91% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 27.0% restricted 4.6% classified 19.5% consumer 22.0% mil spec 16.0% blue 10.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt