--- title: "Sloth case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sloth ($204.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 100.91% over 385 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sloth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sloth A case on CSGORoll (partners, 25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth?window=all) Price · $204.86 · 293 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $186.24 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.91% · 385 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 104.32% ±24.89 341 openings 30 days · 100.91% ±23.42 385 openings since tracking started · 100.91% ±23.42 385 openings 3.0% 85.0% 167.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth?window=24h) | 32 | 84.95% ±81.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth?window=7d) | 341 | 104.32% ±24.9 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth) | 385 | 100.91% ±23.4 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sloth?window=all) | 385 | 100.91% ±23.4 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,573 9,390 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,335 9,050 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,719 8,170 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $2,167 3,095 coins | 5.8% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 333 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.73× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $1,820 2,600 coins | 19.5% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 250 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,369 1,955 coins | 7.3% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.04× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 133 | $1,282 1,832 coins | 5.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $685 978 coins | 11.0% | 13 | 11.5 | 1.13× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $517 738 coins | 18.4% | 26 | 25.6 | 1.02× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $379 542 coins | 8.1% | 10 | 15.4 | 0.65× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $190 272 coins | 6.1% | 24 | 23.1 | 1.04× | | [Sticker \| Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) | 37.5% | $6.57 9.39 coins | 1.3% | 130 | 144.4 | 0.90× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) | 37.5% | $5.56 7.94 coins | 1.1% | 159 | 144.4 | 1.10× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $209 299 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 32.13x 2026-11-04 18:56 UTC [Sticker | Clan-Mystik (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $209 299 coins $4,288 6,125 coins 20.48x 2026-11-06 16:06 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $205 293 coins $3,311 4,730 coins 16.16x 2026-11-10 00:12 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $209 299 coins $2,342 3,345 coins 11.18x 2026-11-06 16:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $205 293 coins $2,167 3,095 coins 10.58x 2026-11-10 23:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $209 299 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 9.74x 2026-11-05 13:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $209 299 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 9.74x 2026-11-04 18:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $209 299 coins $1,792 2,560 coins 8.56x 2026-11-07 18:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $209 299 coins $1,792 2,560 coins 8.56x 2026-11-07 17:53 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $209 299 coins $1,792 2,560 coins 8.56x 2026-11-07 17:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sloth) [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) Hidden $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) Hidden $205 293 coins $5.56 7.94 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) Hidden $205 293 coins $379 542 coins 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) Hidden $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) Hidden $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) Hidden $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $205 293 coins $5.56 7.94 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Sticker | Miami Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-flick-holo) Hidden $205 293 coins $6.57 9.39 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $205 | 90.91% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $205 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $209 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.1% legendary 6.7% epic 0.2% classified 1.0% remarkable 37.5% high 37.5% best hit $6,727 (32.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt