--- title: "Small Arms case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Small Arms ($44.52) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 96.64% over 116 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Small Arms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Small Arms A case on CSGORoll (pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms?window=all) Price · $44.52 · 63.6 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $40.47 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.64% · 116 openings, odds method Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 96.64% ±21.40 116 openings 30 days · 96.64% ±21.40 116 openings since tracking started · 96.64% ±21.40 116 openings 74.5% 96.5% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms?window=7d) | 116 | 96.64% ±21.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms) | 116 | 96.64% ±21.4 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/small-arms?window=all) | 116 | 96.64% ±21.4 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 116 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $421 602 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $420 600 coins | 2.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $370 529 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $273 390 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $193 275 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $159 227 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $148 211 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $134 192 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $103 147 coins | 38.1% | 20 | 17.4 | 1.15× | | [USP-S \| Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $85.40 122 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $84.00 120 coins | 3.7% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $80.50 115 coins | 4.6% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $54.19 77.42 coins | 2.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $52.26 74.66 coins | 12.6% | 12 | 11.3 | 1.06× | | [P2000 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $44.20 63.14 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $27.74 39.63 coins | 2.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $22.17 31.67 coins | 2.2% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.72× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $19.94 28.48 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $4.40 6.28 coins | 2.4% | 22 | 25.5 | 0.86× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 28.0% | $2.12 3.03 coins | 1.5% | 34 | 32.5 | 1.05× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=small-arms) [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $44.52 63.6 coins $2.12 3.03 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) Hidden $44.52 63.6 coins $80.50 115 coins 1.81x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) Hidden $44.52 63.6 coins $421 602 coins 9.47x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [USP-S | Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) [Jabs GG](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jabs%20GG) $44.52 63.6 coins $85.40 122 coins 1.92x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $44.74 63.92 coins $2.18 3.11 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 18:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) Hidden $44.74 63.92 coins $4.57 6.53 coins 0.10x 2026-11-08 18:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $44.74 63.92 coins $2.18 3.11 coins 0.05x 2026-11-08 18:32 UTC [USP-S | Business Class (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-factory-new) Hidden $44.74 63.92 coins $85.40 122 coins 1.91x 2026-11-08 18:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $44.74 63.92 coins $103 147 coins 2.30x 2026-11-08 18:32 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) Hidden $44.74 63.92 coins $52.26 74.66 coins 1.17x 2026-11-08 18:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $44.52 | 90.91% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $44.98 | 90.90% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.00 | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 58.0% covert 26.9% classified 3.2% mil spec 4.1% industrial 7.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt