---
title: "Smash or Pass case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Smash or Pass ($14.80) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 92.46% over 1,477 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Smash or Pass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Smash or Pass

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass?window=all)

Price · $14.80 · 21.15 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $13.46 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.46% · 1,477 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97.32% ±26.63 199 openings

7 days · 91.52% ±10.32 1,314 openings

30 days · 92.46% ±9.73 1,477 openings

since tracking started · 92.46% ±9.73 1,477 openings

70.0% 97.3% 124.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass?window=24h) | 199 | 97.32% ±26.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass?window=7d) | 1,314 | 91.52% ±10.3 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass) | 1,477 | 92.46% ±9.73 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smash-or-pass?window=all) | 1,477 | 92.46% ±9.73 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,477 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Operation Vanguard Access Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-vanguard-access-pass) | 1 in 2,000 | $779 1,113 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Operation Bravo Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-bravo-pass) | 1 in 667 | $263 375 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [Operation Wildfire Access Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-wildfire-access-pass) | 1 in 333 | $203 290 coins | 4.5% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [Operation Phoenix Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-phoenix-pass) | 1 in 200 | $176 251 coins | 6.5% | 12 | 7.4 | 1.62× |
| [Operation Breakout All Access Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-breakout-all-access-pass) | 1 in 100 | $65.18 93.11 coins | 4.8% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.02× |
| [Operation Bloodhound Access Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-bloodhound-access-pass) | 1 in 67 | $49.32 70.45 coins | 5.5% | 23 | 22.2 | 1.04× |
| [Operation Shattered Web Premium Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-shattered-web-premium-pass) | 1 in 67 | $45.16 64.52 coins | 5.0% | 19 | 22.2 | 0.86× |
| [Operation Riptide Premium Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-riptide-premium-pass) | 1 in 20 | $44.00 62.86 coins | 16.3% | 81 | 73.9 | 1.10× |
| [Trapper Aggressor \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-aggressor-guerrilla-warfare) | 10.0% | $22.20 31.71 coins | 16.5% | 146 | 147.7 | 0.99× |
| [Special Agent Ava \| FBI agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/special-agent-ava-fbi) | 10.0% | $15.91 22.73 coins | 11.8% | 158 | 147.7 | 1.07× |
| [Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) | 10.0% | $14.13 20.18 coins | 10.5% | 143 | 147.7 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Tamara(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tamara-holo) | 15.0% | $3.58 5.11 coins | 4.0% | 210 | 221.5 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Ivette(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ivette-holo-2) | 15.0% | $3.44 4.91 coins | 3.8% | 212 | 221.5 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Sherry(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo-2) | 15.0% | $2.34 3.35 coins | 2.6% | 230 | 221.5 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| Kimberly(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kimberly-holo) | 15.0% | $1.93 2.76 coins | 2.2% | 222 | 221.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=smash-or-pass)

[Sticker | Ivette(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ivette-holo-2) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $3.44 4.91 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Sticker | Sherry(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo-2) [Lucas.\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lucas.***********-7366492) $14.80 21.15 coins $2.34 3.35 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Sticker | Sherry(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo-2) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $2.34 3.35 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Operation Breakout All Access Pass other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-breakout-all-access-pass) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $65.18 93.11 coins 4.40x 2026-11-11 18:13 UTC

[Sticker | Sherry(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sherry-holo-2) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $2.34 3.35 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Sticker | Tamara(Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tamara-holo) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $3.58 5.11 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Safecracker Voltzmann | The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $14.13 20.18 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Safecracker Voltzmann | The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $14.13 20.18 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Safecracker Voltzmann | The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) Hidden $14.80 21.15 coins $14.13 20.18 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[Safecracker Voltzmann | The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) [patrisha go go](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/patrisha%20go%20go) $14.80 21.15 coins $14.13 20.18 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC | $14.80 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.78 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $14.91 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.91 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed base 10.0% distinguished 10.0% master 10.0% pink 10.0% remarkable 60.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt