---
title: "Smite case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Smite ($4.43) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.97% from 14 items with odds, observed 88.12% over 13.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Smite](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Smite

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite?window=all)

Price · $4.43 · 6.33 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.97% · EV $4.03 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.12% · 13.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.50% ±18.90 1,556 openings

7 days · 88.85% ±6.93 11.3K openings

30 days · 88.12% ±6.42 13.2K openings

since tracking started · 88.12% ±6.42 13.2K openings

74.0% 93.5% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite?window=24h) | 1,556 | 93.50% ±18.9 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite?window=7d) | 11.3K | 88.85% ±6.93 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite) | 13.2K | 88.12% ±6.42 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smite?window=all) | 13.2K | 88.12% ±6.42 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| tiziaN (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tizian-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 100 | $141 201 coins | 34.9% | 124 | 131.6 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $94.50 135 coins | 23.4% | 127 | 131.6 | 0.97× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $18.20 26 coins | 13.5% | 384 | 394.8 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $4.69 6.7 coins | 5.8% | 641 | 658.0 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $3.69 5.27 coins | 4.6% | 623 | 658.0 | 0.95× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $3.04 4.35 coins | 4.5% | 828 | 776.4 | 1.07× |
| [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $2.60 3.72 coins | 3.2% | 703 | 658.0 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.09 2.98 coins | 1.6% | 372 | 394.8 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.99 1.41 coins | 2.0% | 1,045 | 1052.7 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.64 0.91 coins | 1.3% | 1,067 | 1052.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $0.63 0.9 coins | 1.6% | 1,309 | 1315.9 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.50 0.71 coins | 1.7% | 1,965 | 1842.3 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) | 17.1% | $0.36 0.52 coins | 1.5% | 2,210 | 2250.2 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-well-worn) | 14.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.4% | 1,761 | 1842.3 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=smite)

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.50 0.71 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-full-stop-well-worn) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) [Max1m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Max1m) $4.43 6.33 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.50 0.71 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wraiths-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.63 0.9 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $3.69 5.27 coins 0.83x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

[MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.43 6.33 coins $0.36 0.52 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $4.43 | 90.97% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $4.43 | 90.96% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $4.43 | 90.93% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $4.43 | 90.88% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.45 | 90.97% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.53 | 90.93% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.55 | 90.98% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $4.54 | 90.95% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.54 | 90.97% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $4.55 | 90.89% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.57 | 90.86% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 1.0% covert 1.0% classified 3.0% mil spec 54.1% restricted 22.0% consumer 5.9% industrial 5.0% Rare 8.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.97 on average: an expected loss of $9.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt