---
title: "Smoke case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Smoke ($226.85) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 84.16% over 60 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Smoke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Smoke

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke?window=all)

Price · $226.85 · 324 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $206.23 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.16% · 60 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 24 openings · below min

7 days · 54 openings · below min

30 days · 60 openings · below min

since tracking started · 60 openings · below min

43.5% 83.5% 123.5%

**Small sample.** 60 openings and 13.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke?window=24h) | 24 | 83.49% ±39.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke?window=7d) | 54 | 84.89% ±26.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke) | 60 | 84.16% ±24.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoke?window=all) | 60 | 84.16% ±24.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,932 2,760 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $931 1,330 coins | 9.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $751 1,073 coins | 9.1% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $436 623 coins | 14.8% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $414 591 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $344 492 coins | 13.4% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $264 377 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 12.0% | $260 371 coins | 15.1% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.53× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) | 12.0% | $128 183 coins | 7.5% | 12 | 7.2 | 1.67× |
| [P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 18.5% | $115 165 coins | 10.4% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 18.0% | $57.77 82.53 coins | 5.0% | 11 | 10.8 | 1.02× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 15.0% | $42.81 61.15 coins | 3.1% | 3 | 9.0 | 0.33× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $227 324 coins $931 1,330 coins 4.10x 2026-11-10 17:26 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $227 324 coins $751 1,073 coins 3.31x 2026-11-10 05:29 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=smoke)

[P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $227 324 coins $260 371 coins 1.14x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $227 324 coins $42.81 61.15 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) Hidden $227 324 coins $128 183 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) Hidden $227 324 coins $128 183 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $227 324 coins $344 492 coins 1.52x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $227 324 coins $128 183 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-factory-new) Hidden $227 324 coins $344 492 coins 1.52x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-charred-well-worn) Hidden $227 324 coins $128 183 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $227 324 coins $115 165 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[P90 | Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-fallout-warning-factory-new) Hidden $227 324 coins $115 165 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $227 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $227 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $235 | 90.91% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.5% covert 47.5% classified 8.0% extraordinary 13.5% mil spec 12.0% industrial 18.5% best hit $931 (4.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt