---
title: "Smooth Sailing case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Smooth Sailing ($101.58) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 12 items with odds, observed 77.60% over 201 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Smooth Sailing](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Smooth Sailing

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing?window=all)

Price · $101.58 · 145 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $92.34 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.60% · 201 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 22 openings · below min

7 days · 76.94% ±14.22 171 openings

30 days · 77.60% ±13.12 201 openings

since tracking started · 77.60% ±13.12 201 openings

41.0% 81.0% 121.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.91% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (64.48% – 90.72%, 201 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing?window=24h) | 22 | 81.00% ±39.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing?window=7d) | 171 | 76.94% ±14.2 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing) | 201 | 77.60% ±13.1 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smooth-sailing?window=all) | 201 | 77.60% ±13.1 | −2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 201 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $788 1,125 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 77 | $573 819 coins | 8.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $493 705 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $472 674 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $377 539 coins | 9.4% | 1 | 4.6 | 0.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 20.7% | $118 169 coins | 26.5% | 38 | 41.6 | 0.91× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $85.40 122 coins | 9.2% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.14× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 11.3% | $64.58 92.25 coins | 7.9% | 30 | 22.6 | 1.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 20.0% | $57.26 81.8 coins | 12.4% | 28 | 40.2 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $54.89 78.42 coins | 17.8% | 72 | 60.3 | 1.19× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $49.04 70.05 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $101 145 coins $576 823 coins 5.69x 2026-11-02 22:18 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [PaleThread](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PaleThread) $102 145 coins $573 819 coins 5.64x 2026-11-08 19:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=smooth-sailing)

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $102 145 coins $57.26 81.8 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 145 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $102 145 coins $64.58 92.25 coins 0.64x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-battle-scarred) Hidden $102 145 coins $49.04 70.05 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) Hidden $102 145 coins $54.89 78.42 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-field-tested) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $102 145 coins $57.26 81.8 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 15:20 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $102 145 coins $54.89 78.42 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $102 145 coins $118 169 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) Hidden $102 145 coins $118 169 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) [☯♥㊛](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%98%AF%E2%99%A5%E3%8A%9B) $102 145 coins $118 169 coins 1.16x 2026-11-11 09:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $102 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $102 | 90.91% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $101 | 90.91% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 20.8% covert 53.5% rare 2.3% restricted 20.0% extraordinary 3.5% best hit $576 (5.69x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt