--- title: "Smoulder case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Smoulder ($125.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 90.14% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder rendered: 2026-11-11T14:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Smoulder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Smoulder A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder?window=all) Price · $125.82 · 180 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $114.38 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.14% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 0.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min 65.5% 99.5% 133.5% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 6.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder?window=7d) | 12 | 101.96% ±30.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder) | 20 | 90.14% ±24.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/smoulder?window=all) | 20 | 90.14% ±24.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $404 577 coins | 7.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $263 375 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $192 274 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.14× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $188 268 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $176 251 coins | 23.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 50 | $147 210 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $145 207 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $134 192 coins | 3.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $114 163 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $111 159 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 18.5% | $95.20 136 coins | 15.4% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.35× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $81.20 116 coins | 4.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $78.40 112 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 15.0% | $55.67 79.53 coins | 7.3% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $51.58 73.68 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $46.44 66.34 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $27.74 39.63 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=smoulder) [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $125 179 coins $82.60 118 coins 0.66x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 179 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.63x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $125 179 coins $172 246 coins 1.38x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $125 179 coins $186 265 coins 1.48x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 179 coins $93.10 133 coins 0.74x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $125 179 coins $54.04 77.2 coins 0.43x 2026-11-04 19:50 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 179 coins $93.10 133 coins 0.74x 2026-11-04 19:49 UTC [MP9 | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $125 179 coins $186 265 coins 1.48x 2026-11-04 19:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) Hidden $125 179 coins $135 193 coins 1.08x 2026-11-04 19:49 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) Hidden $125 179 coins $93.10 133 coins 0.74x 2026-11-04 19:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $126 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $126 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $125 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 2.0% covert 60.0% mil spec 7.0% classified 28.0% extraordinary 3.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt