---
title: "Sneaky Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sneaky Case ($20.54) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 21 items with odds, observed 83.79% over 1,332 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sneaky Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sneaky Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case?window=all)

Price · $20.54 · 29.34 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $18.67 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.79% · 1,332 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 87.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 72 openings · below min

7 days · 88.97% ±13.66 1,121 openings

30 days · 83.79% ±12.54 1,332 openings

since tracking started · 83.79% ±12.54 1,332 openings

15.5% 70.0% 124.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case?window=24h) | 72 | 70.08% ±53.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case?window=7d) | 1,121 | 88.97% ±13.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case) | 1,332 | 83.79% ±12.5 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sneaky-case?window=all) | 1,332 | 83.79% ±12.5 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,332 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $327 467 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $189 270 coins | 50.6% | 58 | 66.6 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $186 266 coins | 19.9% | 26 | 26.6 | 0.98× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $165 235 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-damascus-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 225 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $127 181 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $104 149 coins | 2.8% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $95.90 137 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 1 in 10,000 | $62.44 89.2 coins | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $35.94 51.34 coins | 3.9% | 32 | 26.6 | 1.20× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $32.82 46.89 coins | 5.3% | 41 | 40.0 | 1.03× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $19.19 27.42 coins | 4.1% | 58 | 53.3 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 3.7% | 49 | 53.3 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $6.26 8.95 coins | 2.7% | 88 | 106.6 | 0.83× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $5.45 7.78 coins | 2.3% | 96 | 106.6 | 0.90× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $3.37 4.81 coins | 1.4% | 118 | 106.6 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 1.0% | 125 | 133.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-acid-wash-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $1.77 2.53 coins | 0.9% | 120 | 133.2 | 0.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.98 1.4 coins | 0.5% | 153 | 133.2 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.24 0.35 coins | 0.1% | 146 | 133.2 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 15.4% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 0.1% | 216 | 205.7 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sneaky-case)

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[SSG 08 | Slashed (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-slashed-well-worn) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $20.54 29.34 coins $6.26 8.95 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $189 270 coins 9.20x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC

[M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $3.37 4.81 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.54 29.34 coins $6.26 8.95 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 09:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $20.54 | 90.89% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $20.54 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $20.54 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.66 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $20.93 | 90.92% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.92 | 90.92% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.6% classified 26.0% restricted 20.0% mil spec 20.0% Uncommon 10.0% industrial 15.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt