--- title: "Solar Flare case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Solar Flare ($161.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 88.82% over 114 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare rendered: 2026-11-11T18:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Solar Flare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Solar Flare A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare?window=all) Price · $161.92 · 231 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $147.20 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.82% · 114 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 96 openings · below min 30 days · 88.82% ±21.14 114 openings since tracking started · 88.82% ±21.14 114 openings 67.0% 92.0% 117.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare?window=7d) | 96 | 93.42% ±23.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare) | 114 | 88.82% ±21.1 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar-flare?window=all) | 114 | 88.82% ±21.1 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,684 8,120 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 5,000 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 7.8% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $1,051 1,502 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $1,035 1,478 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $793 1,133 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $532 760 coins | 5.6% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.26× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $374 534 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $251 359 coins | 3.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $230 328 coins | 10.3% | 2 | 7.5 | 0.27× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 23.0% | $146 209 coins | 22.9% | 28 | 26.2 | 1.07× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $98.70 141 coins | 3.0% | 1 | 5.1 | 0.19× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $98.70 141 coins | 14.8% | 30 | 25.1 | 1.20× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $91.00 130 coins | 3.7% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.17× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 23.5% | $83.30 119 coins | 13.3% | 28 | 26.8 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $51.23 73.18 coins | 2.4% | 8 | 8.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $163 233 coins $1,134 1,620 coins 6.95x 2026-11-06 02:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $162 231 coins $793 1,133 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $793 1,133 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 03:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) [Zangetsu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zangetsu) $163 233 coins $793 1,133 coins 4.86x 2026-11-08 02:43 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) [lielfarag70](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/lielfarag70) $163 233 coins $540 771 coins 3.31x 2026-11-06 02:50 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $163 233 coins $540 771 coins 3.31x 2026-11-06 02:49 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $162 231 coins $532 760 coins 3.29x 2026-11-10 03:29 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $162 231 coins $532 760 coins 3.29x 2026-11-10 02:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=solar-flare) [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $146 209 coins 0.90x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $146 209 coins 0.90x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $98.70 141 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $98.70 141 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $83.30 119 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-minimal-wear) [Lars](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Lars) $162 231 coins $793 1,133 coins 4.90x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $83.30 119 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $83.30 119 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $98.70 141 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $98.70 141 coins 0.61x 2026-11-10 16:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $162 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $162 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $163 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% contraband 0.0% high 0.0% restricted 1.0% covert 63.1% mil spec 25.3% extraordinary 4.5% classified 6.0% best hit $1,134 (6.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt