--- title: "Solar case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Solar ($11.91) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 24 items with odds, observed 89.98% over 11.3K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Solar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Solar A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar?window=all) Price · $11.91 · 17.02 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $10.83 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.98% · 11.3K openings, odds method Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 101.16% ±14.50 1,701 openings 7 days · 89.08% ±6.10 9,568 openings 30 days · 89.98% ±5.61 11.3K openings since tracking started · 89.98% ±5.61 11.3K openings 82.5% 99.5% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar?window=24h) | 1,701 | 101.16% ±14.5 | +1.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar?window=7d) | 9,568 | 89.08% ±6.10 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar) | 11.3K | 89.98% ±5.61 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/solar?window=all) | 11.3K | 89.98% ±5.61 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $396 566 coins | 1.8% | 6 | 5.7 | 1.06× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $382 545 coins | 1.8% | 10 | 5.7 | 1.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $302 432 coins | 1.4% | 3 | 5.7 | 0.53× | | [Sticker \| Xyp9x (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xyp9x-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 2,000 | $250 357 coins | 1.2% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $211 301 coins | 33.1% | 180 | 192.3 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $205 293 coins | 1.9% | 6 | 11.3 | 0.53× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $200 286 coins | 1.8% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $191 273 coins | 1.8% | 7 | 11.3 | 0.62× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 2,000 | $167 238 coins | 0.8% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.24× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $148 211 coins | 1.4% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.88× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $123 176 coins | 4.0% | 43 | 39.6 | 1.09× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $122 175 coins | 0.6% | 5 | 5.7 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $113 161 coins | 10.4% | 131 | 113.1 | 1.16× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $97.30 139 coins | 0.9% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $91.00 130 coins | 1.3% | 24 | 17.0 | 1.41× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $79.10 113 coins | 2.6% | 41 | 39.6 | 1.04× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $48.52 69.32 coins | 0.4% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $29.50 42.15 coins | 8.2% | 326 | 339.3 | 0.96× | | [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 1 in 13 | $16.29 23.27 coins | 12.0% | 909 | 904.9 | 1.00× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $15.06 21.52 coins | 12.5% | 1,002 | 1018.0 | 0.98× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 182 | $4.15 5.93 coins | 0.2% | 62 | 62.2 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 2,870 | 2827.8 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 2,782 | 2827.8 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,851 | 2827.8 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=solar) [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-factory-new) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $11.91 17.02 coins $29.50 42.15 coins 2.48x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [SG 553 | Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins $15.06 21.52 coins 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [Unboxed =P](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Unboxed%20%3DP) $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [P90 | Sand Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sand-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.91 17.02 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $11.91 | 90.89% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.91 | 90.90% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.92 | 90.91% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.96 | 90.93% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.3% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 0.6% restricted 0.4% classified 9.1% consumer 78.0% remarkable 8.0% industrial 0.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt