--- title: "Sorcery case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sorcery ($54.47) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 95.95% over 649 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sorcery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sorcery A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery?window=all) Price · $54.47 · 77.81 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $49.51 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.95% · 649 openings, odds method Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68 openings · below min 7 days · 96.04% ±23.79 504 openings 30 days · 95.95% ±20.98 649 openings since tracking started · 95.95% ±20.98 649 openings 45.0% 110.0% 175.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery?window=24h) | 68 | 109.91% ±64.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery?window=7d) | 504 | 96.04% ±23.8 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery) | 649 | 95.95% ±21.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sorcery?window=all) | 649 | 95.95% ±21.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 649 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,047 4,353 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,198 3,140 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,357 1,939 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 333 | $1,054 1,506 coins | 6.4% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.05× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 500 | $887 1,267 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $856 1,223 coins | 8.6% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.92× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 125 | $541 773 coins | 8.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $354 506 coins | 14.3% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $135 193 coins | 10.9% | 29 | 26.0 | 1.12× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $109 155 coins | 15.3% | 56 | 45.4 | 1.23× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) | 30.0% | $21.29 30.42 coins | 12.9% | 185 | 194.7 | 0.95× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-well-worn) | 25.0% | $19.19 27.41 coins | 9.7% | 160 | 162.3 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) | 30.0% | $2.32 3.32 coins | 1.4% | 192 | 194.7 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [I AM THE PIRATE KING](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20AM%20THE%20PIRATE%20KING) $54.47 77.81 coins $1,357 1,939 coins 24.92x 2026-11-09 13:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $54.56 77.94 coins $1,054 1,506 coins 19.32x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $54.56 77.94 coins $1,054 1,506 coins 19.32x 2026-11-05 22:52 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $54.56 77.94 coins $1,054 1,506 coins 19.32x 2026-11-05 22:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $54.56 77.94 coins $1,054 1,506 coins 19.32x 2026-11-04 16:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $54.56 77.94 coins $906 1,294 coins 16.60x 2026-11-05 20:39 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $887 1,267 coins 16.28x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $54.56 77.94 coins $875 1,250 coins 16.04x 2026-11-04 18:09 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $54.56 77.94 coins $875 1,250 coins 16.04x 2026-11-04 01:59 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $54.47 77.81 coins $856 1,223 coins 15.72x 2026-11-11 04:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sorcery) [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $54.47 77.81 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $21.29 30.42 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-well-worn) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $19.19 27.41 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-well-worn) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $19.19 27.41 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [Souvenir P250 | Digital Architect (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-digital-architect-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $21.29 30.42 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:34 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $109 155 coins 1.99x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $54.47 77.81 coins $135 193 coins 2.48x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $54.47 | 90.90% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $54.34 | 90.91% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $54.56 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 8.0% extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% restricted 37.0% mil spec 25.0% Mythical 30.0% best hit $1,357 (24.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt