---
title: "Soundwave case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Soundwave ($119.85) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 125.43% over 34 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Soundwave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Soundwave

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave?window=all)

Price · $119.85 · 171 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $108.95 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 125.43% · 34 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 30 openings · below min

30 days · 34 openings · below min

since tracking started · 34 openings · below min

67.5% 133.3% 199.0%

**Small sample.** 34 openings and 7.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave?window=7d) | 30 | 137.28% ±61.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave) | 34 | 125.43% ±57.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/soundwave?window=all) | 34 | 125.43% ±57.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $21K 30,000 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20,000 | $8,057 11,510 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,373 1,961 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $454 648 coins | 12.5% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 10.0% | $295 421 coins | 27.0% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 10.0% | $197 281 coins | 18.1% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $159 227 coins | 7.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 10.0% | $88.90 127 coins | 8.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.18× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 15.0% | $83.30 119 coins | 11.5% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) | 10.8% | $50.96 72.8 coins | 5.1% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) | 15.0% | $23.24 33.2 coins | 3.2% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-factory-new) | 18.0% | $18.20 26 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.55 19.35 coins | 0.4% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $119 170 coins $1,458 2,083 coins 12.25x 2026-11-05 15:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=soundwave)

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $120 171 coins $83.30 119 coins 0.70x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $120 171 coins $295 421 coins 2.46x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) Hidden $120 171 coins $295 421 coins 2.46x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $120 171 coins $83.30 119 coins 0.70x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC

[P2000 | Coach Class (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-factory-new) Hidden $120 171 coins $23.24 33.2 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC

[M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $120 171 coins $197 281 coins 1.64x 2026-11-10 03:08 UTC

[SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) Hidden $119 170 coins $81.20 116 coins 0.68x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $119 170 coins $160 229 coins 1.35x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) [hellsten05](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/hellsten05) $119 170 coins $53.91 77.02 coins 0.45x 2026-11-06 17:04 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $119 170 coins $89.60 128 coins 0.75x 2026-11-05 15:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $120 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $119 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 50.2% rare 3.0% classified 10.8% industrial 15.0% mil spec 18.0% restricted 3.0% best hit $1,458 (12.25x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt