--- title: "Sparkle case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sparkle ($84.64) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 98.46% over 14 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sparkle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sparkle A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle?window=all) Price · $84.64 · 121 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $76.94 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.46% · 14 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 14 openings · below min since tracking started · 14 openings · below min 36.0% 98.5% 161.0% **Small sample.** 14 openings and 4.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle?window=7d) | 14 | 98.46% ±62.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle) | 14 | 98.46% ±62.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sparkle?window=all) | 14 | 98.46% ±62.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,170 1,672 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $263 375 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 50 | $204 291 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $162 231 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $155 221 coins | 6.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $119 170 coins | 4.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $107 153 coins | 20.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $90.30 129 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $76.30 109 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $66.61 95.15 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $63.06 90.09 coins | 12.3% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $52.27 74.67 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $42.29 60.41 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $40.12 57.31 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $35.62 50.88 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $32.44 46.34 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) | 17.5% | $2.09 2.98 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sparkle) [SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $2.23 3.19 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 03:58 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $146 209 coins 1.76x 2026-11-07 03:58 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $62.52 89.32 coins 0.75x 2026-11-07 03:58 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $107 153 coins 1.29x 2026-11-07 03:58 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $146 209 coins 1.76x 2026-11-07 03:58 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $83.27 119 coins $62.52 89.32 coins 0.75x 2026-11-07 03:58 UTC [SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-field-tested) [ViggerMcNieger](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ViggerMcNieger) $83.27 119 coins $2.23 3.19 coins 0.03x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $90.30 129 coins 1.08x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-minimal-wear) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $62.52 89.32 coins 0.75x 2026-11-07 03:56 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-eclipse-well-worn) Hidden $83.27 119 coins $125 178 coins 1.50x 2026-11-04 19:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $84.64 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $84.13 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $83.27 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.5% covert 37.0% high 2.0% classified 19.0% extraordinary 6.0% restricted 3.0% mil spec 15.0% blue 17.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt