---
title: "Spectral case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Spectral ($50.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 80.87% over 225 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spectral](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spectral

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral?window=all)

Price · $50.08 · 71.54 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $45.52 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.87% · 225 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 28 openings · below min

7 days · 79.84% ±14.25 195 openings

30 days · 80.87% ±13.25 225 openings

since tracking started · 80.87% ±13.25 225 openings

38.5% 77.3% 116.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral?window=24h) | 28 | 77.33% ±38.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral?window=7d) | 195 | 79.84% ±14.3 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral) | 225 | 80.87% ±13.3 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spectral?window=all) | 225 | 80.87% ±13.3 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 225 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $563 804 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $445 636 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $356 508 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $291 416 coins | 3.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 250 | $224 320 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $115 164 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $103 147 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $84.00 120 coins | 3.7% | 8 | 4.5 | 1.78× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $71.40 102 coins | 3.9% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $70.70 101 coins | 10.9% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 7.3% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.89× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $65.09 92.98 coins | 5.7% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× |
| [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) | 1 in 17 | $60.06 85.8 coins | 7.9% | 11 | 13.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $48.43 69.18 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $46.98 67.11 coins | 4.6% | 6 | 10.1 | 0.59× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 15.0% | $41.03 58.61 coins | 13.5% | 37 | 33.8 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $19.94 28.48 coins | 9.6% | 49 | 49.5 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 25.2% | $18.43 26.33 coins | 10.2% | 61 | 56.8 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spectral)

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $41.03 58.61 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $50.08 71.54 coins $18.43 26.33 coins 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $103 147 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-field-tested) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $50.08 71.54 coins $46.98 67.11 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $71.40 102 coins 1.43x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC

[ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $19.94 28.48 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $19.94 28.48 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC

[ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) Hidden $50.08 71.54 coins $60.06 85.8 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $50.08 71.54 coins $41.03 58.61 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 05:04 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $50.08 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $51.29 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.46 | 90.91% | 19 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 29.6% restricted 0.7% extraordinary 4.5% classified 37.2% base 6.0% industrial 22.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt