--- title: "Spellcaster case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spellcaster ($79.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 82.59% over 96 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spellcaster](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spellcaster A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster?window=all) Price · $79.18 · 113 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $71.99 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.59% · 96 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 96 openings · below min 30 days · 96 openings · below min since tracking started · 96 openings · below min 56.5% 81.5% 106.5% **Small sample.** 96 openings and 23.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster?window=24h) | 76 | 81.52% ±24.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster?window=7d) | 96 | 82.59% ±21.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster) | 96 | 82.59% ±21.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spellcaster?window=all) | 96 | 82.59% ±21.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $913 1,305 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $232 332 coins | 1.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $180 257 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $179 255 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 20.0% | $116 166 coins | 32.3% | 19 | 19.2 | 0.99× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $111 159 coins | 9.3% | 4 | 5.8 | 0.69× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $102 145 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.39× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $95.90 137 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $93.10 133 coins | 6.5% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $88.90 127 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $66.04 94.35 coins | 1.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $61.54 87.92 coins | 4.3% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.67× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 10.0% | $60.41 86.3 coins | 8.4% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $39.45 56.35 coins | 8.2% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× | | [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $19.80 28.28 coins | 4.1% | 17 | 14.4 | 1.18× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $10.66 15.23 coins | 2.2% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spellcaster) [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $61.54 87.92 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $19.80 28.28 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [Desert Eagle | Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $111 159 coins 1.41x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $79.18 113 coins $102 145 coins 1.28x 2026-11-11 18:31 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $116 166 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $61.54 87.92 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [P250 | Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $39.45 56.35 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $79.18 113 coins $10.66 15.23 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $116 166 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) Hidden $79.18 113 coins $93.10 133 coins 1.18x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $79.18 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $80.72 | 90.91% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.33 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 47.8% restricted 36.0% extraordinary 1.2% mil spec 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt