--- title: "Spicy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Spicy ($16.97) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.72% over 1,411 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spicy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spicy A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy?window=all) Price · $16.97 · 24.25 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $15.43 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.72% · 1,411 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 110.92% ±22.10 171 openings 7 days · 86.89% ±8.48 1,153 openings 30 days · 88.72% ±7.66 1,411 openings since tracking started · 88.72% ±7.66 1,411 openings 78.0% 105.8% 133.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy?window=24h) | 171 | 110.92% ±22.1 | +1.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy?window=7d) | 1,153 | 86.89% ±8.48 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy) | 1,411 | 88.72% ±7.66 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spicy?window=all) | 1,411 | 88.72% ±7.66 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,411 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $174 248 coins | 9.0% | 8 | 11.3 | 0.71× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $109 155 coins | 8.4% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.24× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $89.60 128 coins | 13.4% | 25 | 32.5 | 0.77× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $55.67 79.53 coins | 9.7% | 32 | 38.1 | 0.84× | | [P2000 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $44.20 63.14 coins | 5.7% | 32 | 28.2 | 1.13× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $30.23 43.18 coins | 9.8% | 71 | 70.5 | 1.01× | | [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $29.48 42.11 coins | 15.3% | 127 | 112.9 | 1.13× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $25.23 36.05 coins | 8.2% | 75 | 70.5 | 1.06× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $17.71 25.3 coins | 8.0% | 93 | 98.8 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 29.7% | $3.71 5.3 coins | 7.1% | 404 | 419.1 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 36.3% | $2.26 3.23 coins | 5.3% | 523 | 512.2 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spicy) [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $29.48 42.11 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-field-tested) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $55.67 79.53 coins 3.28x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $3.71 5.3 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $2.26 3.23 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $2.26 3.23 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $16.97 24.25 coins $2.26 3.23 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-battle-scarred) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $29.48 42.11 coins 1.74x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $109 155 coins 6.39x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $2.26 3.23 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-field-tested) Hidden $16.97 24.25 coins $2.26 3.23 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $16.97 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.23 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.22 | 90.90% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.8% classified 18.2% mil spec 10.0% restricted 71.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt