---
title: "Spikey case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Spikey ($80.83) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 94.33% over 67 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spikey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spikey

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey?window=all)

Price · $80.83 · 115 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $73.48 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.33% · 67 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 48 openings · below min

7 days · 54 openings · below min

30 days · 67 openings · below min

since tracking started · 67 openings · below min

52.5% 103.5% 154.5%

**Small sample.** 67 openings and 11.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey?window=24h) | 48 | 104.93% ±48.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey?window=7d) | 54 | 101.00% ±46.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey) | 67 | 94.33% ±41.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spikey?window=all) | 67 | 94.33% ±41.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,755 3,935 coins | 3.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 333 | $1,226 1,752 coins | 5.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $701 1,001 coins | 9.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $643 918 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $221 316 coins | 7.5% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25 | $146 208 coins | 7.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $132 188 coins | 14.3% | 5 | 5.4 | 0.93× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Copper (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $92.40 132 coins | 15.1% | 7 | 8.0 | 0.87× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) | 25.0% | $65.32 93.31 coins | 22.2% | 13 | 16.8 | 0.78× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 26.6% | $18.14 25.91 coins | 6.6% | 14 | 17.8 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $13.52 19.31 coins | 3.7% | 20 | 13.4 | 1.49× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $701 1,001 coins 8.67x 2026-11-11 05:00 UTC

[★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $80.83 115 coins $643 918 coins 7.95x 2026-11-11 05:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spikey)

[Sawed-Off | Copper (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $92.40 132 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $13.52 19.31 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Copper (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-minimal-wear) [Blair](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Blair) $80.83 115 coins $92.40 132 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 05:09 UTC

[M4A4 | Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $13.52 19.31 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 05:07 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Copper (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-copper-minimal-wear) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $92.40 132 coins 1.14x 2026-11-11 05:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $18.14 25.91 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 05:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-factory-new) Hidden $80.83 115 coins $65.32 93.31 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 05:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $80.83 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $80.98 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $81.69 | 90.91% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 32.4% classified 35.6% mil spec 12.0% industrial 20.0% best hit $701 (8.67x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt