--- title: "Spire case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Spire ($3.02) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.40% over 19.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spire A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire?window=all) Price · $3.02 · 4.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $2.75 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.40% · 19.4K openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.23% ±9.95 2,746 openings 7 days · 92.52% ±4.25 16.2K openings 30 days · 92.40% ±3.90 19.4K openings since tracking started · 92.40% ±3.90 19.4K openings 83.5% 94.3% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire?window=24h) | 2,746 | 94.23% ±9.95 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire?window=7d) | 16.2K | 92.52% ±4.25 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire) | 19.4K | 92.40% ±3.90 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spire?window=all) | 19.4K | 92.40% ±3.90 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $438 625 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $107 153 coins | 1.2% | 14 | 5.8 | 2.40× | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $71.40 102 coins | 7.8% | 53 | 58.3 | 0.91× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $65.53 93.61 coins | 1.0% | 13 | 7.8 | 1.67× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $41.41 59.16 coins | 0.8% | 9 | 9.7 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $30.09 42.98 coins | 21.9% | 411 | 388.5 | 1.06× | | [Trapper \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/trapper-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 175 | $27.05 38.65 coins | 5.6% | 128 | 110.7 | 1.16× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $8.56 12.23 coins | 28.0% | 1,701 | 1748.2 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.82 8.31 coins | 10.6% | 994 | 971.2 | 1.02× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $5.17 7.38 coins | 5.6% | 602 | 582.7 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.20 3.15 coins | 4.0% | 928 | 971.2 | 0.96× | | [Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.25 1.79 coins | 2.3% | 1,026 | 971.2 | 1.06× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.64 0.91 coins | 2.3% | 1,865 | 1942.4 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.58 0.83 coins | 4.2% | 3,873 | 3884.8 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.24 0.34 coins | 1.7% | 3,853 | 3884.8 | 0.99× | | [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.20 0.28 coins | 1.4% | 3,954 | 3884.8 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spire) [UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-battle-scarred) [🥱🥱](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%F0%9F%A5%B1%F0%9F%A5%B1) $3.02 4.32 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.64 0.91 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scorched-field-tested) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.24 0.34 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Nova | Wild Six (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-factory-new) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [M4A1-S | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.02 4.32 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.02 | 90.90% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.02 | 90.95% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.77 | 90.94% | 16 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $2.77 | 91.00% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.77 | 90.82% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.1% mil spec 50.3% rare 0.1% industrial 11.0% exceptional 0.6% violet 5.0% Mythical 3.0% classified 5.0% restricted 5.0% consumer 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt