--- title: "Split Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Split Case ($18.42) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 19 items with odds, observed 91.03% over 1,224 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case rendered: 2026-11-11T14:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Split Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Split Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case?window=all) Price · $18.42 · 26.32 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $16.75 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.03% · 1,224 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69 openings · below min 7 days · 87.60% ±10.15 986 openings 30 days · 91.03% ±9.11 1,224 openings since tracking started · 91.03% ±9.11 1,224 openings 39.0% 78.0% 117.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case?window=24h) | 69 | 77.98% ±38.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case?window=7d) | 986 | 87.60% ±10.2 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case) | 1,224 | 91.03% ±9.11 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/split-case?window=all) | 1,224 | 91.03% ±9.11 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,224 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $192 274 coins | 13.7% | 19 | 14.7 | 1.29× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $174 248 coins | 5.2% | 6 | 6.1 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $95.20 136 coins | 14.8% | 28 | 31.8 | 0.88× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $83.30 119 coins | 11.4% | 25 | 28.2 | 0.89× | | [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $42.90 61.28 coins | 6.4% | 25 | 30.6 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $39.73 56.76 coins | 8.3% | 46 | 42.8 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $26.49 37.84 coins | 4.7% | 38 | 36.7 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $17.72 25.31 coins | 7.4% | 83 | 85.7 | 0.97× | | [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $13.16 18.8 coins | 0.6% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) | 27.4% | $12.38 17.68 coins | 20.2% | 332 | 335.4 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $11.33 16.18 coins | 1.7% | 36 | 30.6 | 1.18× | | [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $9.29 13.27 coins | 1.7% | 34 | 36.7 | 0.93× | | [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $4.14 5.91 coins | 0.4% | 13 | 19.6 | 0.66× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) | 11.6% | $1.91 2.73 coins | 1.3% | 135 | 142.0 | 0.95× | | [AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1.55 2.21 coins | 0.6% | 85 | 85.7 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-capillary-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $1.40 2 coins | 0.4% | 71 | 61.2 | 1.16× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.03 1.47 coins | 0.4% | 74 | 73.4 | 1.01× | | [P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.98 1.4 coins | 0.3% | 63 | 67.3 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.68 0.97 coins | 0.3% | 100 | 85.7 | 1.17× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=split-case) [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $18.42 26.32 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [AK-47 | Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $12.38 17.68 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $1.55 2.21 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $0.68 0.97 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $0.68 0.97 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [AK-47 | Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $12.38 17.68 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $17.72 25.31 coins 0.96x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [AK-47 | Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-well-worn) [᠌ ᠌Liwon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%A0%8C%20%E1%A0%8CLiwon) $18.42 26.32 coins $12.38 17.68 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.42 26.32 coins $1.91 2.73 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $18.42 | 90.89% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.42 | 90.90% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.28 | 90.89% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $18.06 | 90.92% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.06 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 13.2% covert 8.9% classified 21.0% restricted 24.9% industrial 27.4% #777777 3.0% Mythical 1.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt