---
title: "Spotlight case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Spotlight ($550.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 176.01% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spotlight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spotlight

A case on CSGORoll (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight?window=all)

Price · $550.18 · 786 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $500.16 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 176.01% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

44.5% 176.0% 307.5%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight) | 4 | 176.01% ±130.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spotlight?window=all) | 4 | 176.01% ±130.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 182 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 250 | $3,892 5,560 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 125 | $2,755 3,935 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 143 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,615 3,735 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 154 | $2,513 3,590 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1,688 2,411 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,295 1,850 coins | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 25 | $1,181 1,687 coins | 9.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 29 | $929 1,327 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $507 725 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 15 | $457 653 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $360 514 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $274 391 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 12.0% | $174 249 coins | 4.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $165 235 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $158 226 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 19.4% | $79.10 113 coins | 3.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $556 795 coins $2,755 3,935 coins 4.95x 2026-11-04 12:42 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $556 795 coins $512 732 coins 0.92x 2026-11-04 12:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spotlight)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $550 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $551 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $556 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.3% legendary 8.1% covert 85.7% classified 1.0% epic 5.0% best hit $2,755 (4.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt