---
title: "Spring Basket case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Spring Basket ($2.25) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.87% from 17 items with odds, observed 85.85% over 37.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spring Basket](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spring Basket

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket?window=all)

Price · $2.25 · 3.22 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.87% · EV $2.05 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.85% · 37.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 76.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.66% ±25.99 4,338 openings

7 days · 85.16% ±9.53 30.9K openings

30 days · 85.85% ±8.60 37.7K openings

since tracking started · 85.85% ±8.60 37.7K openings

54.0% 80.8% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket?window=24h) | 4,338 | 80.66% ±26.0 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket?window=7d) | 30.9K | 85.16% ±9.53 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket) | 37.7K | 85.85% ±8.60 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-basket?window=all) | 37.7K | 85.85% ±8.60 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $4,263 6,090 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,844 2,635 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $234 335 coins | 1.6% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $79.10 113 coins | 1.2% | 13 | 11.3 | 1.15× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $64.81 92.59 coins | 6.3% | 72 | 75.6 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $34.17 48.82 coins | 6.7% | 149 | 151.3 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $29.83 42.62 coins | 7.3% | 160 | 189.1 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $27.53 39.33 coins | 8.7% | 251 | 245.8 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $20.34 29.06 coins | 7.9% | 292 | 302.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 105 | $13.52 19.31 coins | 6.3% | 382 | 359.2 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $7.06 10.08 coins | 11.9% | 1,265 | 1304.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.05 4.36 coins | 7.5% | 1,943 | 1890.7 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 10.0% | $1.85 2.65 coins | 9.1% | 3,813 | 3781.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 18.0% | $1.27 1.82 coins | 11.2% | 6,629 | 6806.5 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aloha-factory-new) | 19.0% | $0.49 0.7 coins | 4.5% | 7,263 | 7184.7 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.18 0.26 coins | 1.8% | 7,593 | 7562.8 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Morris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-battle-scarred) | 21.0% | $0.15 0.21 coins | 1.5% | 7,983 | 7940.9 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MP9 | Wild Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-well-worn) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $1,844 2,635 coins 818.3x 2026-11-09 17:09 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $234 335 coins 104.0x 2026-11-09 14:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) Hidden $2.27 3.24 coins $223 319 coins 98.46x 2026-11-07 22:17 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) Hidden $2.27 3.24 coins $223 319 coins 98.46x 2026-11-07 05:10 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) Hidden $2.27 3.24 coins $223 319 coins 98.46x 2026-11-05 23:15 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) [MR.Saul Goodman](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MR.Saul%20Goodman) $2.27 3.24 coins $223 319 coins 98.46x 2026-11-05 14:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spring-basket)

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aloha-factory-new) [242mtowncrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/242mtowncrew) $2.25 3.22 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $0.15 0.21 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [Foxy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Foxy) $2.25 3.22 coins $0.18 0.26 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $0.15 0.21 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $0.18 0.26 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $1.27 1.82 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $0.15 0.21 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-aloha-factory-new) [Golf](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Golf) $2.25 3.22 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $1.27 1.82 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Morris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-morris-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.25 3.22 coins $0.15 0.21 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $2.25 | 90.87% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.25 | 90.89% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.25 | 90.83% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.28 | 90.78% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.27 | 90.88% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% classified 5.6% restricted 6.2% mil spec 50.0% Mythical 18.0% common 20.0% best hit $1,844 (818.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.87 on average: an expected loss of $9.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt