--- title: "Spring Celebration case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Spring Celebration ($0.47) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.18% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.20% over 74.4K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration rendered: 2026-11-11T17:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Spring Celebration](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Spring Celebration A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration?window=all) Price · $0.47 · 0.67 coins Advertised RTP · 91.18% · EV $0.43 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.20% · 74.4K openings, odds method Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 80.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.38% ±5.91 8,359 openings 7 days · 90.98% ±2.16 57.8K openings 30 days · 91.20% ±1.89 74.4K openings since tracking started · 91.20% ±1.89 74.4K openings 86.0% 92.5% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration?window=24h) | 8,359 | 92.38% ±5.91 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration?window=7d) | 57.8K | 90.98% ±2.16 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration) | 74.4K | 91.20% ±1.89 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/spring-celebration?window=all) | 74.4K | 91.20% ±1.89 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74.4K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,115 1,593 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $78.40 112 coins | 0.9% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.34× | | [AUG \| Navy Murano (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $1.48 2.12 coins | 33.0% | 7,049 | 7068.6 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $1.46 2.08 coins | 1.7% | 375 | 372.2 | 1.01× | | [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 70.0% | $0.31 0.44 coins | 50.4% | 51,962 | 52112.2 | 1.00× | | [P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.29 0.42 coins | 13.8% | 15,055 | 14889.2 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [USP-S | Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $78.40 112 coins 167.2x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 0.65 coins $78.40 112 coins 172.3x 2026-11-08 18:52 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 0.65 coins $75.60 108 coins 166.2x 2026-11-08 10:36 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) [Ak-ko](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ak-ko) $0.45 0.65 coins $75.60 108 coins 166.2x 2026-11-03 00:50 UTC [USP-S | Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 0.65 coins $75.60 108 coins 166.2x 2026-11-03 00:18 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=spring-celebration) [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-battle-scarred) [MR president of USA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MR%20president%20of%20USA) $0.47 0.67 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [P90 | Traction (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-traction-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [AUG | Navy Murano (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $1.48 2.12 coins 3.16x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $0.47 0.67 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) [sakalaka bum bum](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sakalaka%20bum%20bum) $0.47 0.67 coins $0.31 0.44 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.47 | 91.18% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $0.47 | 90.89% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $0.45 | 91.38% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.45 | 91.34% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $0.45 | 91.31% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $0.45 | 91.17% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.45 | 91.15% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.0% consumer 9.5% #8847ff 0.5% mil spec 90.0% best hit $78.40 (167.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.18 on average: an expected loss of $8.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt