--- title: "Stabbingham Palace case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Stabbingham Palace ($3.08) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.01% from 27 items with odds, observed 93.60% over 57.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace rendered: 2026-11-11T17:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Stabbingham Palace](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Stabbingham Palace A case on CSGORoll (knives, 1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace?window=all) Price · $3.08 · 4.4 coins Advertised RTP · 91.01% · EV $2.80 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.60% · 57.9K openings, odds method Variance · 136.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.18% ±32.94 4,830 openings 7 days · 92.89% ±11.18 43.1K openings 30 days · 93.60% ±9.66 57.9K openings since tracking started · 93.60% ±9.66 57.9K openings 55.5% 89.3% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace?window=24h) | 4,830 | 89.18% ±32.9 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace?window=7d) | 43.1K | 92.89% ±11.2 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace) | 57.9K | 93.60% ±9.66 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stabbingham-palace?window=all) | 57.9K | 93.60% ±9.66 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 58K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,054 1,505 coins | 18.8% | 32 | 29.0 | 1.10× | | [★ Karambit knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit) | 1 in 2,000 | $891 1,273 coins | 15.9% | 29 | 29.0 | 1.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet) | 1 in 2,000 | $630 900 coins | 11.2% | 27 | 29.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Talon Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $293 418 coins | 5.2% | 36 | 29.0 | 1.24× | | [★ Skeleton Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $198 283 coins | 3.5% | 20 | 29.0 | 0.69× | | [★ Bayonet knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet) | 1 in 2,000 | $194 277 coins | 3.5% | 29 | 29.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $172 245 coins | 3.1% | 34 | 29.0 | 1.17× | | [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $159 227 coins | 2.8% | 32 | 29.0 | 1.10× | | [★ Flip Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $159 227 coins | 2.8% | 34 | 29.0 | 1.17× | | [★ Nomad Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $113 161 coins | 2.0% | 31 | 29.0 | 1.07× | | [★ Huntsman Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $104 148 coins | 1.8% | 34 | 29.0 | 1.17× | | [★ Falchion Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $88.90 127 coins | 1.6% | 22 | 29.0 | 0.76× | | [★ Kukri Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $73.50 105 coins | 1.3% | 27 | 29.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Bowie Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $73.50 105 coins | 1.3% | 28 | 29.0 | 0.97× | | [★ Ursus Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $64.46 92.08 coins | 1.1% | 33 | 29.0 | 1.14× | | [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 1 in 2,000 | $62.44 89.2 coins | 1.1% | 26 | 29.0 | 0.90× | | [★ Gut Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $54.89 78.42 coins | 1.0% | 42 | 29.0 | 1.45× | | [★ Paracord Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $47.74 68.2 coins | 0.9% | 24 | 29.0 | 0.83× | | [★ Survival Knife knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $46.14 65.92 coins | 0.8% | 25 | 29.0 | 0.86× | | [★ Navaja Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife) | 1 in 2,000 | $37.63 53.76 coins | 0.7% | 23 | 29.0 | 0.79× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| FACEIT \| London 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-faceit-london-2018) | 1 in 11 | $3.71 5.3 coins | 11.9% | 5,174 | 5218.9 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Miami Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-stabbyfish) | 15.0% | $0.48 0.69 coins | 2.6% | 8,516 | 8698.2 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-stabbyfish) | 15.0% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 1.5% | 8,800 | 8698.2 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| After Hours Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-after-hours-stabbyfish) | 15.0% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 1.5% | 8,788 | 8698.2 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Watermelon Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-stabbyfish) | 15.0% | $0.24 0.35 coins | 1.3% | 8,775 | 8698.2 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| Knives Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knives-out) | 15.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.6% | 8,660 | 8698.2 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| Knife's Edge sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knifes-edge) | 15.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 8,687 | 8698.2 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-08 08:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) [cornelius](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/cornelius) $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-08 07:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-08 01:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-07 16:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-07 00:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-06 20:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-06 20:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-06 19:43 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) [Baduci](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Baduci) $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-06 16:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) Hidden $3.16 4.51 coins $1,109 1,584 coins 351.2x 2026-11-06 15:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=stabbingham-palace) [Sticker | Watermelon Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-stabbyfish) [Slippy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Slippy) $3.08 4.4 coins $0.24 0.35 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Miami Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-stabbyfish) Hidden $3.08 4.4 coins $0.48 0.69 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Ocean Sunset Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-stabbyfish) [Slippy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Slippy) $3.08 4.4 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Knives Out sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knives-out) Hidden $3.08 4.4 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Miami Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-stabbyfish) Hidden $3.08 4.4 coins $0.48 0.69 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Knife's Edge sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knifes-edge) [Slippy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Slippy) $3.08 4.4 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Miami Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-stabbyfish) Hidden $3.08 4.4 coins $0.48 0.69 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Knife's Edge sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knifes-edge) Hidden $3.08 4.4 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Miami Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-miami-stabbyfish) Hidden $3.08 4.4 coins $0.48 0.69 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | FACEIT | London 2018 graffiti · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-faceit-london-2018) [Coonley](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Coonley) $3.08 4.4 coins $3.71 5.3 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 17:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.08 | 91.01% | 27 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.09 | 90.97% | 27 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.07 | 90.94% | 27 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.16 | 90.98% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% Immortal 0.1% high 99.0% best hit $1,109 (351.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.01 on average: an expected loss of $8.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt