--- title: "Stained case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stained ($26.65) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 6 items with odds, observed 91.84% over 4,782 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained rendered: 2026-11-11T23:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Stained](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Stained A case on CSGORoll (10%, knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained?window=all) Price · $26.65 · 38.07 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $24.23 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.84% · 4,782 openings, odds method Variance · 11.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.66% ±29.73 511 openings 7 days · 96.99% ±10.77 3,880 openings 30 days · 91.84% ±9.70 4,782 openings since tracking started · 91.84% ±9.70 4,782 openings 64.5% 94.8% 125.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained?window=24h) | 511 | 94.66% ±29.7 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained?window=7d) | 3,880 | 96.99% ±10.8 | +1.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained) | 4,782 | 91.84% ±9.70 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stained?window=all) | 4,782 | 91.84% ±9.70 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,782 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $515 735 coins | 42.5% | 101 | 95.6 | 1.06× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $382 546 coins | 31.6% | 95 | 95.6 | 0.99× | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $151 216 coins | 12.5% | 89 | 95.6 | 0.93× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $92.40 132 coins | 7.6% | 87 | 95.6 | 0.91× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $68.43 97.76 coins | 5.6% | 106 | 95.6 | 1.11× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) | 90.0% | $0.06 0.08 coins | 0.2% | 4,304 | 4303.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-08 11:56 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-08 04:27 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) [Robond](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Robond) $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-08 00:42 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 21:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) [Jamal](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jamal) $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 21:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 21:14 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) [NeVerLucK](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/NeVerLucK) $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 21:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 20:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) [Aimbot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Aimbot) $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 20:15 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) Hidden $27.47 39.25 coins $535 764 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 03:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=stained) [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) [POMPOLEOOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/POMPOLEOOO) $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.65 38.07 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 22:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $26.65 | 90.90% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.66 | 90.90% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.71 | 90.91% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.47 | 90.91% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.0% industrial 90.0% best hit $535 (19.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt