--- title: "Starstruck case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Starstruck ($14.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 18 items with odds, observed 91.57% over 1,648 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Starstruck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Starstruck A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck?window=all) Price · $14.61 · 20.87 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $13.28 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.57% · 1,648 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.20% ±25.42 109 openings 7 days · 92.16% ±6.77 1,537 openings 30 days · 91.57% ±6.54 1,648 openings since tracking started · 91.57% ±6.54 1,648 openings 67.0% 93.3% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck?window=24h) | 109 | 93.20% ±25.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck?window=7d) | 1,537 | 92.16% ±6.77 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck) | 1,648 | 91.57% ±6.54 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/starstruck?window=all) | 1,648 | 91.57% ±6.54 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,652 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $273 390 coins | 1.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $228 326 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $200 286 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.61× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $160 229 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.21× | | [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 182 | $123 176 coins | 5.1% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 286 | $122 174 coins | 3.2% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.38× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $69.05 98.65 coins | 2.3% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.94× | | [P250 \| Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $38.54 55.06 coins | 2.9% | 14 | 16.5 | 0.85× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 11.5% | $38.19 54.56 coins | 33.1% | 183 | 190.0 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $31.04 44.34 coins | 5.8% | 45 | 41.3 | 1.09× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $27.22 38.88 coins | 1.3% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× | | [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $27.10 38.71 coins | 5.1% | 40 | 41.3 | 0.97× | | [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $21.55 30.79 coins | 8.1% | 84 | 82.6 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $15.79 22.56 coins | 9.5% | 122 | 132.2 | 0.92× | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.61 19.44 coins | 5.1% | 94 | 82.6 | 1.14× | | [Dual Berettas \| Pyre (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-pyre-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $12.10 17.28 coins | 2.0% | 41 | 36.3 | 1.13× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 40.0% | $2.94 4.2 coins | 8.9% | 659 | 660.8 | 1.00× | | [M249 \| Humidor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $1.99 2.85 coins | 3.0% | 327 | 330.4 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=starstruck) [M249 | Humidor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $1.99 2.85 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $14.61 20.87 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $38.19 54.56 coins 2.61x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $21.55 30.79 coins 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $2.94 4.2 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [M249 | Humidor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-humidor-battle-scarred) [ElChapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ElChapo) $14.61 20.87 coins $1.99 2.85 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC [AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) Hidden $14.61 20.87 coins $13.61 19.44 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.61 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.80 | 90.89% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.81 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% restricted 63.5% extraordinary 0.6% mil spec 25.0% classified 8.0% industrial 2.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt