---
title: "StatTrak case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "StatTrak ($68.40) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 80.81% over 221 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [StatTrak](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · StatTrak

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak?window=all)

Price · $68.40 · 97.72 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $62.18 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.81% · 221 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 7 openings · below min

7 days · 83.42% ±26.67 189 openings

30 days · 80.81% ±24.64 221 openings

since tracking started · 80.81% ±24.64 221 openings

-0.5% 102.0% 204.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak?window=24h) | 7 | 64.28% ±139.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak?window=7d) | 189 | 83.42% ±26.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak) | 221 | 80.81% ±24.6 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stattrak?window=all) | 221 | 80.81% ±24.6 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 221 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,842 4,060 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $883 1,262 coins | 5.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $477 682 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $336 480 coins | 21.6% | 5 | 8.8 | 0.57× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $169 242 coins | 16.3% | 14 | 13.3 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $99.40 142 coins | 12.8% | 18 | 17.7 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 10.0% | $80.50 115 coins | 12.9% | 18 | 22.1 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 10.0% | $48.33 69.05 coins | 7.8% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 11.0% | $32.22 46.03 coins | 5.7% | 26 | 24.3 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $27.74 39.63 coins | 4.9% | 25 | 24.3 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $11.75 16.79 coins | 2.3% | 27 | 26.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 12.0% | $5.82 8.32 coins | 1.1% | 23 | 26.5 | 0.87× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.85 2.64 coins | 0.4% | 41 | 33.1 | 1.24× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $70.14 100 coins $883 1,262 coins 12.59x 2026-11-08 10:37 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $70.14 100 coins $883 1,262 coins 12.59x 2026-11-06 18:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=stattrak)

[★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $169 242 coins 2.48x 2026-11-10 23:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $48.33 69.05 coins 0.71x 2026-11-10 23:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) [Elturados](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Elturados) $68.40 97.72 coins $48.33 69.05 coins 0.71x 2026-11-10 23:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 20:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $5.82 8.32 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 20:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) [Russy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Russy) $68.40 97.72 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 20:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $32.22 46.03 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 20:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) [krnl2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/krnl2k) $68.40 97.72 coins $1.85 2.64 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 20:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $68.40 97.72 coins $5.82 8.32 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 20:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $68.40 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $69.42 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $70.14 | 90.91% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% rare 0.4% epic 0.5% covert 38.0% classified 23.0% restricted 38.0% best hit $883 (12.59x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt