--- title: "Sterile case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sterile ($4.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 21 items with odds, observed 91.32% over 49.2K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sterile](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sterile A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile?window=all) Price · $4.99 · 7.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $4.54 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.32% · 49.2K openings, odds method Variance · 12.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 34 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.48% ±8.20 6,834 openings 7 days · 92.99% ±3.37 40.7K openings 30 days · 91.32% ±3.06 49.2K openings since tracking started · 91.32% ±3.06 49.2K openings 85.5% 94.5% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile?window=24h) | 6,834 | 94.48% ±8.20 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile?window=7d) | 40.7K | 92.99% ±3.37 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile) | 49.2K | 91.32% ±3.06 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sterile?window=all) | 49.2K | 91.32% ±3.06 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49.3K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $193 275 coins | 4.2% | 41 | 49.3 | 0.83× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $134 192 coins | 3.0% | 40 | 49.3 | 0.81× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $130 185 coins | 2.9% | 50 | 49.3 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $118 168 coins | 2.6% | 55 | 49.3 | 1.12× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $116 166 coins | 2.6% | 54 | 49.3 | 1.10× | | [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $116 166 coins | 2.6% | 54 | 49.3 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $107 153 coins | 2.4% | 47 | 49.3 | 0.95× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $103 147 coins | 2.3% | 48 | 49.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $91.70 131 coins | 20.2% | 522 | 492.7 | 1.06× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $61.92 88.45 coins | 1.4% | 42 | 49.3 | 0.85× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $51.69 73.84 coins | 11.4% | 490 | 492.7 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $50.69 72.42 coins | 1.1% | 51 | 49.3 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $44.47 63.53 coins | 9.8% | 509 | 492.7 | 1.03× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $40.87 58.38 coins | 9.0% | 483 | 492.7 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 8.7% | 494 | 492.7 | 1.00× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $28.87 41.25 coins | 6.4% | 483 | 492.7 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $17.47 24.95 coins | 3.9% | 505 | 492.7 | 1.03× | | [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $16.25 23.21 coins | 3.6% | 484 | 492.7 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $9.51 13.59 coins | 2.1% | 479 | 492.7 | 0.97× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 22,367 | 22169.7 | 1.01× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 21,968 | 22169.7 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sterile) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [kingen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kingen) $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:03 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [kingen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kingen) $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.99 7.13 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.99 | 90.88% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $4.99 | 90.89% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.03 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.2% classified 2.2% covert 5.5% restricted 0.1% rare 1.0% industrial 1.0% consumer 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt