--- title: "Sticky Situation case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sticky Situation ($1,162.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 71.66% over 17 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation rendered: 2026-11-11T18:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sticky Situation](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sticky Situation A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation?window=all) Price · $1,162.22 · 1,660 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $1,056.56 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.66% · 17 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 17 openings · below min since tracking started · 17 openings · below min 7.5% 73.3% 139.0% **Small sample.** 17 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation?window=24h) | 8 | 73.12% ±65.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation?window=7d) | 16 | 68.21% ±46.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation) | 17 | 71.66% ±44.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sticky-situation?window=all) | 17 | 71.66% ±44.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $6,125 8,750 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 14.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 67 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 6.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 10.0% | $2,069 2,955 coins | 19.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 10.0% | $1,528 2,183 coins | 14.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1,058 1,512 coins | 15.0% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.57× | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $1,002 1,432 coins | 19.0% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.47× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 20.0% | $280 400 coins | 5.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $160 229 coins | 3.0% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 1.78x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) Hidden $1,166 1,665 coins $1,477 2,110 coins 1.27x 2026-11-03 00:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,166 1,665 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 0.93x 2026-11-06 20:07 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,166 1,665 coins $1,083 1,547 coins 0.93x 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 0.91x 2026-11-10 05:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 0.91x 2026-11-10 05:26 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sticky-situation) [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $2,069 2,955 coins 1.78x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 17:15 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $280 400 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $160 229 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $1,162 1,660 coins $280 400 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:14 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,058 1,512 coins 0.91x 2026-11-10 05:26 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,162 1,660 coins $1,002 1,432 coins 0.86x 2026-11-10 05:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,162 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,166 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 65.5% contraband 3.0% legendary 11.5% classified 20.0% best hit $2,069 (1.78x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt