--- title: "Stinger case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stinger ($8.74) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 10 items with odds, observed 83.47% over 4,802 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger rendered: 2026-11-11T20:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Stinger](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Stinger A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger?window=all) Price · $8.74 · 12.49 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $7.95 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.47% · 4,802 openings, odds method Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 102.50% ±24.74 586 openings 7 days · 85.01% ±9.63 3,819 openings 30 days · 83.47% ±8.58 4,802 openings since tracking started · 83.47% ±8.58 4,802 openings 74.0% 101.0% 128.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger?window=24h) | 586 | 102.50% ±24.7 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger?window=7d) | 3,819 | 85.01% ±9.63 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger) | 4,802 | 83.47% ±8.58 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stinger?window=all) | 4,802 | 83.47% ±8.58 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,802 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $166 237 coins | 52.2% | 108 | 120.1 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $68.93 98.47 coins | 8.7% | 47 | 48.0 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $38.49 54.99 coins | 7.3% | 57 | 72.0 | 0.79× | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $11.94 17.05 coins | 1.5% | 52 | 48.0 | 1.08× | | [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $10.71 15.3 coins | 9.4% | 294 | 336.1 | 0.87× | | [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 10.0% | $8.77 12.53 coins | 11.0% | 461 | 480.2 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.44 4.92 coins | 2.6% | 319 | 288.1 | 1.11× | | [UMP-45 \| Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) | 23.0% | $2.51 3.59 coins | 7.3% | 1,083 | 1104.5 | 0.98× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,233 | 1200.5 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 23.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,148 | 1104.5 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=stinger) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.74 12.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.74 12.49 coins $2.51 3.59 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.74 12.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) [kick/waldsx 🟢](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/kick%2Fwaldsx%20%F0%9F%9F%A2) $8.74 12.49 coins $2.51 3.59 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.74 12.49 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [fabsu1996](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fabsu1996) $8.74 12.49 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) [Ahre-Ketil](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ahre-Ketil) $8.74 12.49 coins $2.51 3.59 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [andeng17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/andeng17) $8.74 12.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [UMP-45 | Indigo (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-indigo-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.74 12.49 coins $2.51 3.59 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [andeng17](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/andeng17) $8.74 12.49 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $8.74 | 90.93% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.78 | 90.93% | 10 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.72 | 90.93% | 10 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $8.62 | 90.94% | 10 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $8.66 | 90.88% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.60 | 90.88% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.5% restricted 9.5% mil spec 11.0% industrial 6.0% consumer 71.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt