--- title: "Stonks case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stonks ($49.70) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 93.41% over 93 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks rendered: 2026-11-11T15:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Stonks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Stonks A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks?window=all) Price · $49.70 · 71 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $45.18 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.41% · 93 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 10 openings · below min 7 days · 85 openings · below min 30 days · 93 openings · below min since tracking started · 93 openings · below min 28.5% 93.0% 157.5% **Small sample.** 93 openings and 17.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks?window=24h) | 10 | 93.08% ±63.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks?window=7d) | 85 | 96.91% ±21.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks) | 93 | 93.41% ±21.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/stonks?window=all) | 93 | 93.41% ±21.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 93 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $564 806 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $435 622 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $434 620 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $291 416 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $211 301 coins | 18.7% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $126 180 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $106 151 coins | 18.7% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.81× | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $96.60 138 coins | 12.8% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $80.50 115 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $78.40 112 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $76.30 109 coins | 20.3% | 12 | 11.2 | 1.08× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 10.0% | $52.35 74.78 coins | 11.6% | 10 | 9.3 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $35.62 50.88 coins | 2.4% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 33.2% | $10.95 15.64 coins | 8.0% | 32 | 30.8 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 22.0% | $5.82 8.32 coins | 2.8% | 17 | 20.5 | 0.83× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=stonks) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $5.82 8.32 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $76.30 109 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $10.95 15.64 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $10.95 15.64 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $76.30 109 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC [M4A4 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $49.70 71 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.58x 2026-11-11 05:46 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $10.95 15.64 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $10.95 15.64 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $49.70 71 coins $76.30 109 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) [MASON92J](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MASON92J) $49.70 71 coins $106 151 coins 2.13x 2026-11-11 04:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $49.70 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $49.55 | 90.90% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $49.67 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 33.8% epic 0.0% red 8.0% classified 36.2% restricted 22.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt