--- title: "Subnautic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Subnautic ($14.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 11 items with odds, observed 91.84% over 14.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Subnautic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Subnautic A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic?window=all) Price · $14.00 · 20 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $12.72 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.84% · 14.5K openings, odds method Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.13% ±12.79 1,470 openings 7 days · 92.61% ±4.43 12.5K openings 30 days · 91.84% ±4.11 14.5K openings since tracking started · 91.84% ±4.11 14.5K openings 76.5% 90.0% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic?window=24h) | 1,470 | 90.13% ±12.8 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic?window=7d) | 12.5K | 92.61% ±4.43 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic) | 14.5K | 91.84% ±4.11 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/subnautic?window=all) | 14.5K | 91.84% ±4.11 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $193 276 coins | 7.6% | 74 | 72.6 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $162 232 coins | 10.2% | 110 | 116.2 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $159 227 coins | 25.0% | 292 | 290.4 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $118 169 coins | 11.2% | 181 | 174.3 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $81.90 117 coins | 19.3% | 434 | 435.6 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $51.30 73.29 coins | 14.1% | 548 | 508.2 | 1.08× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $21.55 30.78 coins | 6.8% | 590 | 580.8 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $8.81 12.59 coins | 3.5% | 693 | 726.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $5.97 8.53 coins | 2.3% | 746 | 726.1 | 1.03× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 37.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 5,341 | 5445.4 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 37.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 5,512 | 5445.4 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=subnautic) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $14.00 20 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 20 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 20 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.00 20 coins $51.30 73.29 coins 3.66x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-factory-new) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $14.00 20 coins $118 169 coins 8.45x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.00 20 coins $8.81 12.59 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 20 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 20 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 20 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $14.00 20 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $14.00 | 90.89% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.04 | 90.90% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.87 | 90.90% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 6.8% classified 8.2% mil spec 5.0% restricted 5.0% consumer 75.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt