--- title: "Suburban case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Suburban ($10.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.88% from 22 items with odds, observed 91.86% over 5,010 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Suburban](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Suburban A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban?window=all) Price · $10.86 · 15.51 coins Advertised RTP · 90.88% · EV $9.87 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.86% · 5,010 openings, odds method Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.81% ±20.87 522 openings 7 days · 92.99% ±7.25 4,293 openings 30 days · 91.86% ±6.71 5,010 openings since tracking started · 91.86% ±6.71 5,010 openings 60.5% 82.0% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban?window=24h) | 522 | 81.81% ±20.9 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban?window=7d) | 4,293 | 92.99% ±7.25 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban) | 5,010 | 91.86% ±6.71 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/suburban?window=all) | 5,010 | 91.86% ±6.71 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,038 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $174 249 coins | 26.5% | 69 | 75.6 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $158 225 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $110 157 coins | 1.1% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.19× | | [P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $101 144 coins | 9.2% | 45 | 45.3 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $76.30 109 coins | 2.3% | 21 | 15.1 | 1.39× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $50.64 72.34 coins | 35.9% | 370 | 352.7 | 1.05× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $36.44 52.06 coins | 0.1% | 3 | 1.0 | 2.98× | | [Sticker \| Doppler Poison Frog (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-doppler-poison-frog-foil) | 1 in 5,000 | $34.64 49.49 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $28.72 41.03 coins | 0.6% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.19× | | [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $19.03 27.19 coins | 0.8% | 22 | 20.2 | 1.09× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $18.14 25.91 coins | 14.9% | 428 | 408.1 | 1.05× | | [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $15.91 22.73 coins | 1.3% | 28 | 40.3 | 0.69× | | [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $14.04 20.05 coins | 0.7% | 26 | 25.2 | 1.03× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $11.83 16.9 coins | 0.7% | 30 | 30.2 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Toxic Flow (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-toxic-flow-holo) | 1 in 182 | $9.21 13.16 coins | 0.5% | 29 | 27.7 | 1.05× | | [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $5.01 7.15 coins | 2.0% | 205 | 201.5 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.23 4.62 coins | 1.0% | 157 | 151.1 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $3.04 4.35 coins | 1.5% | 259 | 251.9 | 1.03× | | [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.59 2.27 coins | 0.3% | 80 | 100.8 | 0.79× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.2% | 974 | 1007.6 | 0.97× | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 993 | 1007.6 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 1,280 | 1259.5 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=suburban) [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-factory-new) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $5.01 7.15 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) [✪ Majk\_Z ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%20Majk_Z%20%E2%9C%AA) $10.86 15.51 coins $50.64 72.34 coins 4.66x 2026-11-11 11:29 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $10.86 15.51 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC [Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-groundwater-field-tested) Hidden $10.86 15.51 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.86 | 90.88% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.86 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.77 | 90.89% | 22 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $10.69 | 90.89% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.70 | 90.90% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% extraordinary 0.0% exotic 0.0% classified 9.3% mil spec 0.8% industrial 40.5% remarkable 0.5% restricted 14.0% consumer 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.88 on average: an expected loss of $9.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt