--- title: "Sunken case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sunken ($57.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 86.33% over 414 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sunken](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sunken A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken?window=all) Price · $57.51 · 82.16 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $52.28 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.33% · 414 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 31.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 31 openings · below min 7 days · 87.28% ±8.76 357 openings 30 days · 86.33% ±8.13 414 openings since tracking started · 86.33% ±8.13 414 openings 47.5% 77.8% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken?window=24h) | 31 | 77.80% ±29.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken?window=7d) | 357 | 87.28% ±8.76 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken) | 414 | 86.33% ±8.13 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunken?window=all) | 414 | 86.33% ±8.13 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 414 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $2,219 3,170 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $999 1,427 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $659 942 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $366 523 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $172 246 coins | 9.9% | 10 | 12.4 | 0.81× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $109 155 coins | 6.2% | 7 | 12.4 | 0.56× | | [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 15.0% | $102 146 coins | 29.3% | 58 | 62.1 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 10.0% | $91.70 131 coins | 17.5% | 46 | 41.4 | 1.11× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 15.0% | $51.29 73.27 coins | 14.7% | 64 | 62.1 | 1.03× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $47.36 67.65 coins | 4.5% | 24 | 20.7 | 1.16× | | [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 10.0% | $41.41 59.16 coins | 7.9% | 46 | 41.4 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 10.0% | $34.79 49.7 coins | 6.7% | 36 | 41.4 | 0.87× | | [MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) | 10.8% | $5.02 7.17 coins | 1.0% | 48 | 44.9 | 1.07× | | [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) | 18.0% | $1.56 2.23 coins | 0.5% | 75 | 74.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sunken) [MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) Hidden $57.51 82.16 coins $5.02 7.17 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $57.51 82.16 coins $51.29 73.27 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) Hidden $57.51 82.16 coins $5.02 7.17 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $57.51 82.16 coins $5.02 7.17 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $57.51 82.16 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) Hidden $57.51 82.16 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) Hidden $57.51 82.16 coins $41.41 59.16 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-well-worn) Hidden $57.51 82.16 coins $1.56 2.23 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $57.51 82.16 coins $51.29 73.27 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC [MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-factory-new) [Necro](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Necro) $57.51 82.16 coins $5.02 7.17 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 04:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.51 | 90.91% | 14 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.88 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $58.33 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 46.1% extraordinary 5.1% classified 10.0% rare 10.0% mil spec 10.8% uncommon 18.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt