---
title: "Sunrise case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sunrise ($28.36) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 82.11% over 405 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sunrise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sunrise

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise?window=all)

Price · $28.36 · 40.51 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $25.78 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.11% · 405 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 48 openings · below min

7 days · 81.54% ±15.35 356 openings

30 days · 82.11% ±14.40 405 openings

since tracking started · 82.11% ±14.40 405 openings

32.0% 74.0% 116.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise?window=24h) | 48 | 74.09% ±41.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise?window=7d) | 356 | 81.54% ±15.3 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise) | 405 | 82.11% ±14.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunrise?window=all) | 405 | 82.11% ±14.4 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 405 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $211 301 coins | 24.5% | 14 | 12.2 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $167 238 coins | 12.9% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $76.30 109 coins | 8.9% | 3 | 12.2 | 0.25× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $60.40 86.28 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 8.1 | 0.49× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $40.87 58.38 coins | 4.8% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $36.93 52.75 coins | 4.3% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $29.41 42.02 coins | 3.4% | 13 | 12.2 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $26.49 37.84 coins | 3.1% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $18.43 26.33 coins | 4.3% | 27 | 24.3 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $17.07 24.38 coins | 4.6% | 14 | 28.4 | 0.49× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $16.42 23.46 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.99× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $13.97 19.96 coins | 2.2% | 23 | 16.2 | 1.42× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 15.0% | $13.78 19.69 coins | 8.0% | 61 | 60.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) | 17.5% | $11.58 16.54 coins | 7.9% | 77 | 70.9 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $7.55 10.78 coins | 1.8% | 26 | 24.3 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $5.26 7.52 coins | 1.4% | 34 | 28.4 | 1.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Hunting Blind (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-factory-new) | 15.0% | $5.10 7.28 coins | 3.0% | 70 | 60.8 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sunrise)

[Galil AR | Hunting Blind (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-hunting-blind-factory-new) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $28.36 40.51 coins $5.10 7.28 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $13.78 19.69 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $7.55 10.78 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC

[Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $13.97 19.96 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $7.55 10.78 coins 0.27x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $28.36 40.51 coins $26.49 37.84 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $17.07 24.38 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC

[MP9 | Setting Sun (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-well-worn) Hidden $28.36 40.51 coins $11.58 16.54 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 10:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $28.36 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $27.85 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $27.75 | 90.91% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.0% classified 24.0% industrial 9.0% restricted 17.0% mil spec 24.0% consumer 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt