---
title: "Sunset case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sunset ($24.05) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 86.89% over 675 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sunset](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sunset

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset?window=all)

Price · $24.05 · 34.36 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $21.87 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.89% · 675 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 88.78% ±12.56 481 openings

30 days · 86.89% ±10.59 675 openings

since tracking started · 86.89% ±10.59 675 openings

57.0% 95.2% 133.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset?window=24h) | 54 | 95.36% ±37.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset?window=7d) | 481 | 88.78% ±12.6 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset) | 675 | 86.89% ±10.6 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sunset?window=all) | 675 | 86.89% ±10.6 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 675 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $878 1,254 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $827 1,182 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $617 881 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $243 347 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $116 166 coins | 2.7% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.30× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $113 162 coins | 10.4% | 15 | 13.5 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $101 144 coins | 23.0% | 30 | 33.8 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 10.0% | $40.12 57.31 coins | 18.3% | 65 | 67.5 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 14.4% | 60 | 54.0 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 11.4% | $29.48 42.11 coins | 15.4% | 84 | 76.9 | 1.09× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.26 36.08 coins | 3.5% | 16 | 20.3 | 0.79× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 15.0% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 3.0% | 96 | 101.3 | 0.95× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 16.0% | $4.22 6.03 coins | 3.1% | 106 | 108.0 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $3.71 5.3 coins | 2.0% | 88 | 81.0 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 17.0% | $2.09 2.99 coins | 1.6% | 114 | 114.8 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sunset)

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $4.22 6.03 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC

[P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $24.05 34.36 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $29.48 42.11 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) [3GO](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/3GO) $24.05 34.36 coins $29.48 42.11 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 09:13 UTC

[P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 05:01 UTC

[AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [szoblegyorsan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/szoblegyorsan) $24.05 34.36 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 05:01 UTC

[AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $101 144 coins 4.19x 2026-11-11 05:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $40.12 57.31 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 05:01 UTC

[P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 22:08 UTC

[AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $24.05 34.36 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $24.05 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.03 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $24.14 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $24.16 | 90.90% | 15 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $24.14 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.13 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 25.1% extraordinary 0.5% mil spec 28.4% classified 3.0% industrial 15.0% restricted 28.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt