--- title: "Supernova case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Supernova ($29.25) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 92.92% over 2,023 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Supernova](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Supernova A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova?window=all) Price · $29.25 · 41.79 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $26.59 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.92% · 2,023 openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.03% ±12.31 227 openings 7 days · 92.49% ±4.48 1,734 openings 30 days · 92.92% ±4.15 2,023 openings since tracking started · 92.92% ±4.15 2,023 openings 74.0% 87.0% 100.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova?window=24h) | 227 | 87.03% ±12.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova?window=7d) | 1,734 | 92.49% ±4.48 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova) | 2,023 | 92.92% ±4.15 | +0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supernova?window=all) | 2,023 | 92.92% ±4.15 | +0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,027 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $134 192 coins | 2.5% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.28× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $102 145 coins | 5.7% | 28 | 30.4 | 0.92× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 12.0% | $77.70 111 coins | 35.1% | 253 | 243.2 | 1.04× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 6.2% | 62 | 50.7 | 1.22× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $63.41 90.59 coins | 4.8% | 36 | 40.5 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $58.58 83.69 coins | 6.6% | 63 | 60.8 | 1.04× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $39.24 56.06 coins | 10.3% | 130 | 141.9 | 0.92× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $18.54 26.48 coins | 10.5% | 302 | 304.1 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $15.03 21.47 coins | 6.8% | 265 | 243.2 | 1.09× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $14.37 20.53 coins | 4.3% | 160 | 162.2 | 0.99× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) | 36.5% | $5.29 7.56 coins | 7.3% | 715 | 739.9 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=supernova) [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $77.70 111 coins 2.66x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $5.29 7.56 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) [SlaweE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SlaweE) $29.25 41.79 coins $5.29 7.56 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $5.29 7.56 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-battle-scarred) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $29.25 41.79 coins $5.29 7.56 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 2.24x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $14.37 20.53 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $102 145 coins 3.47x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $18.54 26.48 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) Hidden $29.25 41.79 coins $14.37 20.53 coins 0.49x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $29.25 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.24 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.44 | 90.91% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $29.48 | 90.92% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $29.55 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.87 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 26.0% classified 59.0% pink 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt