--- title: "Superstition case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Superstition ($5.87) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.96% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.37% over 11.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Superstition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Superstition A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition?window=all) Price · $5.87 · 8.38 coins Advertised RTP · 90.96% · EV $5.34 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.37% · 11.9K openings, odds method Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.70% ±5.35 1,170 openings 7 days · 92.00% ±1.83 9,828 openings 30 days · 91.37% ±1.66 11.9K openings since tracking started · 91.37% ±1.66 11.9K openings 87.5% 93.5% 99.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition?window=24h) | 1,170 | 93.70% ±5.35 | +1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition?window=7d) | 9,828 | 92.00% ±1.83 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition) | 11.9K | 91.37% ±1.66 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/superstition?window=all) | 11.9K | 91.37% ±1.66 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $199 284 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 11,111 | $142 203 coins | 0.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.78× | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $101 144 coins | 0.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $60.08 85.83 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-dark-age-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $38.25 54.65 coins | 0.5% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $27.08 38.69 coins | 0.7% | 10 | 15.6 | 0.64× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $26.85 38.35 coins | 7.5% | 173 | 179.5 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $18.09 25.84 coins | 11.9% | 451 | 418.9 | 1.08× | | [Sticker \| FalleN \| Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fallen-cologne-2016) | 1 in 22 | $13.91 19.87 coins | 11.7% | 524 | 538.6 | 0.97× | | [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.26 17.51 coins | 11.7% | 619 | 610.4 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $7.26 10.37 coins | 7.5% | 638 | 658.3 | 0.97× | | [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.21 6.01 coins | 4.8% | 965 | 730.1 | 1.32× | | [Black Mesa Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-mesa-pin) | 1 in 12 | $4.16 5.94 coins | 6.5% | 891 | 1005.4 | 0.89× | | [Sticker \| Lucky Cat (Foil) sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucky-cat-foil) | 12.0% | $4.13 5.9 coins | 9.3% | 1,462 | 1436.3 | 1.02× | | [G3SG1 \| Ancient Ritual (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-factory-new) | 23.1% | $2.70 3.86 coins | 11.7% | 2,709 | 2766.0 | 0.98× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 30.0% | $2.63 3.76 coins | 14.8% | 3,510 | 3590.7 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=superstition) [Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $12.26 17.51 coins 2.09x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $2.70 3.86 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $18.09 25.84 coins 3.08x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Black Mesa Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/black-mesa-pin) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $4.16 5.94 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC [G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $2.70 3.86 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:30 UTC [G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-ancient-ritual-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $2.70 3.86 coins 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [Sticker | FalleN | Cologne 2016 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fallen-cologne-2016) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $5.87 8.38 coins $13.91 19.87 coins 2.37x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $5.87 8.38 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $5.87 8.38 coins $2.63 3.76 coins 0.45x 2026-11-11 13:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.87 | 90.96% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.48 | 90.86% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.48 | 90.87% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.0% covert 0.2% mil spec 5.6% classified 5.0% high 24.9% industrial 28.2% Mil Spec 6.1% restricted 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.96 on average: an expected loss of $9.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt