---
title: "Supreme Rifles case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Supreme Rifles ($73.75) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 89.08% over 1,245 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Supreme Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Supreme Rifles

A case on CSGORoll (rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles?window=all)

Price · $73.75 · 105 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $67.05 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.08% · 1,245 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 54 openings · below min

7 days · 84.44% ±15.67 402 openings

30 days · 89.08% ±8.87 1,245 openings

since tracking started · 89.08% ±8.87 1,245 openings

40.0% 83.7% 127.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles?window=24h) | 54 | 83.74% ±42.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles?window=7d) | 402 | 84.44% ±15.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles) | 1,245 | 89.08% ±8.87 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/supreme-rifles?window=all) | 1,245 | 89.08% ±8.87 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,245 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $7,000 10,000 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $714 1,020 coins | 5.3% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $263 375 coins | 3.9% | 9 | 12.5 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $207 296 coins | 4.6% | 20 | 18.7 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $197 281 coins | 2.9% | 13 | 12.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $186 266 coins | 13.9% | 65 | 62.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $186 265 coins | 2.8% | 12 | 12.5 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $174 248 coins | 2.6% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $167 238 coins | 12.4% | 76 | 62.3 | 1.22× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $142 203 coins | 10.6% | 63 | 62.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $113 162 coins | 5.1% | 26 | 37.4 | 0.70× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $111 159 coins | 8.3% | 58 | 62.3 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $94.50 135 coins | 1.4% | 9 | 12.5 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $91.70 131 coins | 6.8% | 61 | 62.3 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $81.20 116 coins | 6.1% | 57 | 62.3 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $48.87 69.82 coins | 3.6% | 67 | 62.0 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $23.32 33.31 coins | 3.5% | 130 | 124.5 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.29 17.56 coins | 0.9% | 65 | 62.3 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 10.0% | $11.90 17 coins | 1.8% | 145 | 124.5 | 1.16× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4.76 6.8 coins | 0.7% | 116 | 124.5 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 1.3% | 237 | 249.0 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-07 20:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-04 11:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-03 15:25 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-03 12:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-03 11:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-03 10:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $73.15 105 coins $727 1,039 coins 9.94x 2026-11-03 09:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $714 1,020 coins 9.68x 2026-11-10 17:10 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=supreme-rifles)

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $81.20 116 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $167 238 coins 2.26x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $73.75 105 coins $23.32 33.31 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 17:33 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $73.75 105 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $12.29 17.56 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $11.90 17 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $23.32 33.31 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

[M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $73.75 105 coins $167 238 coins 2.26x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $73.75 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $73.29 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $73.15 | 90.91% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 35.0% contraband 0.0% classified 35.0% mil spec 10.0% restricted 20.0% best hit $727 (9.94x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt