---
title: "Surge case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Surge ($92.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 95.95% over 305 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Surge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Surge

A case on CSGORoll (30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge?window=all)

Price · $92.99 · 133 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $84.54 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.95% · 305 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 19 openings · below min

7 days · 112.07% ±28.79 212 openings

30 days · 95.95% ±24.01 305 openings

since tracking started · 95.95% ±24.01 305 openings

71.5% 243.0% 414.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge?window=24h) | 19 | 318.58% ±95.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge?window=7d) | 212 | 112.07% ±28.8 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge) | 305 | 95.95% ±24.0 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surge?window=all) | 305 | 95.95% ±24.0 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 305 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 500 | $2,769 3,955 coins | 6.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $1,544 2,206 coins | 5.5% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $1,229 1,755 coins | 6.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $431 615 coins | 10.2% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $410 586 coins | 4.9% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 87 | $365 521 coins | 5.0% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.71× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $331 473 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $224 320 coins | 7.2% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $223 319 coins | 22.8% | 22 | 26.4 | 0.83× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $183 262 coins | 7.1% | 5 | 9.9 | 0.50× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $137 195 coins | 8.1% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.18× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $127 181 coins | 6.0% | 16 | 12.2 | 1.31× |
| [Sticker \| Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) | 20.0% | $7.89 11.27 coins | 1.9% | 58 | 61.0 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Abalone Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-abalone-strafe-holo) | 30.0% | $5.75 8.22 coins | 2.0% | 100 | 91.5 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) | 20.0% | $5.55 7.93 coins | 1.3% | 58 | 61.0 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $2,769 3,955 coins 29.77x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $1,544 2,206 coins 16.61x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $91.95 131 coins $1,509 2,156 coins 16.41x 2026-11-07 03:10 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $91.95 131 coins $1,509 2,156 coins 16.41x 2026-11-05 17:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=surge)

[Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $7.89 11.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $2,769 3,955 coins 29.77x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $92.99 133 coins $127 181 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $5.55 7.93 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[Sticker | Abalone Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-abalone-strafe-holo) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $92.99 133 coins $5.75 8.22 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $127 181 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $5.55 7.93 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC

[Sticker | Abalone Strafe (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-abalone-strafe-holo) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $5.75 8.22 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $92.99 133 coins $1,544 2,206 coins 16.61x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC

[Sticker | Dragon Lore Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dragon-lore-surf-ava-foil) [FaLLouT'z](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FaLLouT'z) $92.99 133 coins $7.89 11.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 03:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $92.99 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $92.80 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $91.95 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 20.2% legendary 1.1% extraordinary 8.6% exotic 20.0% remarkable 50.0% best hit $2,769 (29.77x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt