--- title: "Surrealism case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Surrealism ($4.86) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 18 items with odds, observed 90.52% over 4,831 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Surrealism](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Surrealism A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism?window=all) Price · $4.86 · 6.94 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $4.42 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.52% · 4,831 openings, odds method Variance · 0.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 37.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.67% ±3.77 401 openings 7 days · 90.68% ±1.19 3,944 openings 30 days · 90.52% ±1.07 4,831 openings since tracking started · 90.52% ±1.07 4,831 openings 85.0% 89.5% 94.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism?window=24h) | 401 | 89.67% ±3.77 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism?window=7d) | 3,944 | 90.68% ±1.19 | −0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism) | 4,831 | 90.52% ±1.07 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/surrealism?window=all) | 4,831 | 90.52% ±1.07 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,867 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 40,000 | $64.17 91.67 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $48.90 69.86 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 22,222 | $41.38 59.11 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $27.05 38.65 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,222 | $25.92 37.03 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $23.00 32.86 coins | 0.3% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $17.72 25.31 coins | 0.4% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $15.62 22.31 coins | 0.5% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $12.93 18.47 coins | 0.7% | 9 | 12.2 | 0.74× | | [Sticker Capsule 2 container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-capsule-2) | 1 in 200 | $11.30 16.14 coins | 1.3% | 25 | 24.3 | 1.03× | | [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $9.55 13.64 coins | 1.1% | 15 | 24.3 | 0.62× | | [Souvenir XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-bone-machine-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $7.81 11.15 coins | 2.1% | 162 | 56.9 | 2.84× | | [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $7.15 10.21 coins | 6.1% | 102 | 182.5 | 0.56× | | [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.75 9.64 coins | 8.8% | 270 | 279.9 | 0.96× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $5.97 8.53 coins | 13.5% | 482 | 486.7 | 0.99× | | [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 14.7% | $4.70 6.71 coins | 15.6% | 729 | 715.4 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 28.0% | $4.14 5.91 coins | 26.2% | 1,390 | 1362.8 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 35.0% | $2.88 4.12 coins | 22.9% | 1,669 | 1703.4 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=surrealism) [StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [Dekan9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekan9) $4.86 6.94 coins $2.88 4.12 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $4.86 6.94 coins $2.88 4.12 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) [Gabbre](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gabbre) $4.86 6.94 coins $2.88 4.12 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $4.86 6.94 coins $2.88 4.12 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) Hidden $4.86 6.94 coins $2.88 4.12 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) [Gabbre](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gabbre) $4.86 6.94 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.86 6.94 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) [Dekan9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekan9) $4.86 6.94 coins $7.15 10.21 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) [Dekan9](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dekan9) $4.86 6.94 coins $5.97 8.53 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.86 6.94 coins $4.14 5.91 coins 0.85x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $4.86 | 90.89% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.82 | 90.90% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $4.78 | 90.90% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $4.70 | 90.97% | 18 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $4.71 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.77 | 90.91% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 45.3% uncommon 19.0% rare 0.0% mil spec 7.0% restricted 28.3% base 0.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt