--- title: "Sushi case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sushi ($18.96) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 38.44% over 11.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Sushi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Sushi A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi?window=all) Price · $18.96 · 27.08 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $17.23 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 38.44% · 11.5K openings, odds method Variance · 388.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1,277 openings · below min 7 days · 37.67% ±38.37 9,995 openings 30 days · 38.44% ±35.73 11.5K openings since tracking started · 38.44% ±35.73 11.5K openings -0.5% 76.3% 153.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (2.72% – 74.17%, 11,504 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi?window=24h) | 1,277 | 44.25% ±108.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi?window=7d) | 9,995 | 37.67% ±38.4 | −2.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi) | 11.5K | 38.44% ±35.7 | −2.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/sushi?window=all) | 11.5K | 38.44% ±35.7 | −2.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.5K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $30.1K 42,950 coins | 17.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,465 9,235 coins | 11.3% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $6,003 8,575 coins | 10.4% | 0 | 3.5 | 0.00× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 3,333 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 10.4% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.29× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,311 4,730 coins | 19.2% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 8.5% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 6.9% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.95× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $509 727 coins | 3.0% | 8 | 11.5 | 0.69× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $433 619 coins | 2.5% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $418 597 coins | 2.4% | 20 | 11.5 | 1.73× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $356 508 coins | 2.1% | 7 | 11.5 | 0.61× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 500 | $204 291 coins | 2.4% | 26 | 23.1 | 1.13× | | [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 33.0% | $1.09 1.55 coins | 2.1% | 3,777 | 3809.5 | 0.99× | | [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) | 33.0% | $0.61 0.87 coins | 1.2% | 3,833 | 3809.5 | 1.01× | | [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) | 33.0% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.2% | 3,838 | 3809.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [jhjh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/jhjh) $18.96 27.08 coins $5,978 8,540 coins 315.4x 2026-11-08 23:38 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $19.38 27.68 coins $3,423 4,890 coins 176.7x 2026-11-04 19:41 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $19.38 27.68 coins $3,423 4,890 coins 176.7x 2026-11-03 23:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [SuperNinjaHD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/SuperNinjaHD) $19.38 27.68 coins $3,423 4,890 coins 176.7x 2026-11-03 17:17 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $3,311 4,730 coins 174.7x 2026-11-11 05:01 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $3,311 4,730 coins 174.7x 2026-11-11 04:10 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $3,311 4,730 coins 174.7x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) [jhjh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/jhjh) $18.96 27.08 coins $3,311 4,730 coins 174.7x 2026-11-08 23:30 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.38 27.68 coins $1,491 2,130 coins 76.95x 2026-11-08 05:22 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $19.38 27.68 coins $1,491 2,130 coins 76.95x 2026-11-07 19:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=sushi) [Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.61 0.87 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $18.96 27.08 coins $0.61 0.87 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.61 0.87 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC [MAC-10 | Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.61 0.87 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC [Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $18.96 27.08 coins $0.61 0.87 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.96 | 90.91% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.97 | 90.92% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.38 | 90.92% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.9% epic 0.1% restricted 66.0% common 33.0% best hit $5,978 (315.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt