---
title: "Synth case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Synth ($21.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 15 items with odds, observed 86.93% over 2,262 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Synth](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Synth

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth?window=all)

Price · $21.15 · 30.21 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $19.22 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.93% · 2,262 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.03% ±22.77 274 openings

7 days · 86.05% ±8.48 2,010 openings

30 days · 86.93% ±8.00 2,262 openings

since tracking started · 86.93% ±8.00 2,262 openings

64.5% 88.0% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth?window=24h) | 274 | 88.03% ±22.8 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth?window=7d) | 2,010 | 86.05% ±8.48 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth) | 2,262 | 86.93% ±8.00 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synth?window=all) | 2,262 | 86.93% ±8.00 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,262 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $307 438 coins | 1.6% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $181 258 coins | 3.8% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.55× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 125 | $178 254 coins | 7.4% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $177 253 coins | 9.2% | 21 | 22.6 | 0.93× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $125 179 coins | 6.5% | 27 | 22.6 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $109 156 coins | 22.7% | 70 | 90.5 | 0.77× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $102 145 coins | 13.2% | 51 | 56.6 | 0.90× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $69.48 99.25 coins | 4.3% | 30 | 27.1 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $59.44 84.91 coins | 10.8% | 82 | 79.2 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $51.29 73.27 coins | 9.3% | 82 | 79.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $38.21 54.58 coins | 6.0% | 73 | 67.9 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $24.49 34.98 coins | 5.1% | 74 | 90.5 | 0.82× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 536 | 565.5 | 0.95× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 565 | 565.5 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 25.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 620 | 565.5 | 1.10× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=synth)

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $102 145 coins 4.80x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $178 254 coins 8.41x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $21.15 30.21 coins $102 145 coins 4.80x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) [Jake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jake) $21.15 30.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Galil AR | Sage Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-field-tested) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $102 145 coins 4.80x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $109 156 coins 5.16x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $21.15 30.21 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $21.15 | 90.91% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.15 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $20.96 | 90.92% | 15 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.71 | 90.91% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 3.1% covert 14.4% classified 7.5% consumer 75.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt