--- title: "Synthwave case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Synthwave ($19.92) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 15 items with odds, observed 89.98% over 2,551 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave rendered: 2026-11-11T19:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Synthwave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Synthwave A case on CSGORoll (60%, gloves, 50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave?window=all) Price · $19.92 · 28.45 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $18.10 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.98% · 2,551 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.12% ±15.70 187 openings 7 days · 88.47% ±4.89 2,084 openings 30 days · 89.98% ±4.43 2,551 openings since tracking started · 89.98% ±4.43 2,551 openings 79.0% 95.3% 111.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave?window=24h) | 187 | 95.12% ±15.7 | +0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave?window=7d) | 2,084 | 88.47% ±4.89 | −1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave) | 2,551 | 89.98% ±4.43 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/synthwave?window=all) | 2,551 | 89.98% ±4.43 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,561 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,558 2,226 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $584 834 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Violet Beadwork (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-violet-beadwork-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $525 750 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $431 616 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-fully-tuned-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $260 371 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $179 255 coins | 4.9% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $109 155 coins | 5.1% | 29 | 21.8 | 1.33× | | [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $94.50 135 coins | 8.1% | 33 | 39.7 | 0.83× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $63.41 90.59 coins | 7.0% | 49 | 51.2 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $34.96 49.94 coins | 5.8% | 57 | 76.8 | 0.74× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $29.32 41.89 coins | 11.4% | 195 | 181.0 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 20.0% | $19.99 28.56 coins | 22.1% | 508 | 512.2 | 0.99× | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 20.0% | $19.52 27.89 coins | 21.6% | 510 | 512.2 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) | 20.0% | $11.12 15.89 coins | 12.3% | 538 | 512.2 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.75 1.07 coins | 1.0% | 630 | 640.3 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=synthwave) [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $19.99 28.56 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $19.99 28.56 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $11.12 15.89 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) [Jbeuhlélé](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jbeuhl%C3%A9l%C3%A9) $19.92 28.45 coins $11.12 15.89 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) [Jbeuhlélé](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jbeuhl%C3%A9l%C3%A9) $19.92 28.45 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-firebreathing-factory-new) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $11.12 15.89 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) Hidden $19.92 28.45 coins $19.99 28.56 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) [Jbeuhlélé](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jbeuhl%C3%A9l%C3%A9) $19.92 28.45 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.92 | 90.90% | 15 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.65 | 90.89% | 15 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $18.57 | 90.90% | 15 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.57 | 90.91% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 14.1% rare 20.0% red 0.9% classified 40.0% #8847ff 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt