--- title: "T-Spawn case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "T-Spawn ($25.26) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 21 items with odds, observed 94.72% over 1,994 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [T-Spawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · T-Spawn A case on CSGORoll (10%, csgo), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn?window=all) Price · $25.26 · 36.09 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $22.96 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.72% · 1,994 openings, odds method Variance · 12.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.92% ±44.29 237 openings 7 days · 98.56% ±16.91 1,616 openings 30 days · 94.72% ±15.21 1,994 openings since tracking started · 94.72% ±15.21 1,994 openings 38.0% 83.0% 128.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn?window=24h) | 237 | 82.92% ±44.3 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn?window=7d) | 1,616 | 98.56% ±16.9 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn) | 1,994 | 94.72% ±15.2 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/t-spawn?window=all) | 1,994 | 94.72% ±15.2 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,994 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,566 3,665 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,461 2,087 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $995 1,421 coins | 2.2% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $636 909 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $563 804 coins | 2.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [Sticker \| RUSH (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rush-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,000 | $453 647 coins | 2.0% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.01× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $287 410 coins | 5.0% | 9 | 8.0 | 1.13× | | [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $276 394 coins | 3.6% | 12 | 6.0 | 2.01× | | [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $263 375 coins | 1.7% | 6 | 3.0 | 2.01× | | [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $230 328 coins | 2.0% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $207 296 coins | 5.4% | 10 | 12.0 | 0.84× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $185 264 coins | 12.1% | 27 | 29.9 | 0.90× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-integrale-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $139 199 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.01× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-fennec-fox-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $130 186 coins | 6.8% | 26 | 23.9 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $98.00 140 coins | 10.2% | 43 | 47.9 | 0.90× | | [SCAR-20 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $67.14 95.92 coins | 5.6% | 36 | 37.9 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $18.97 27.1 coins | 0.7% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× | | [Street Soldier \| Phoenix agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/street-soldier-phoenix) | 25.0% | $10.33 14.76 coins | 11.2% | 486 | 498.5 | 0.97× | | [Ground Rebel \| Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) | 35.0% | $8.46 12.09 coins | 12.9% | 710 | 697.9 | 1.02× | | [Slingshot \| Phoenix agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/slingshot-phoenix) | 30.0% | $5.79 8.27 coins | 7.6% | 593 | 598.2 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.68 36.69 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 41.02x 2026-11-08 00:21 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.68 36.69 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 41.02x 2026-11-05 23:29 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $25.68 36.69 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 41.02x 2026-11-05 00:02 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $995 1,421 coins 39.37x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $25.68 36.69 coins $641 915 coins 24.94x 2026-11-06 13:02 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) Hidden $25.68 36.69 coins $573 818 coins 22.29x 2026-11-08 07:26 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [patur aliņ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/patur%20ali%C5%86) $25.68 36.69 coins $573 818 coins 22.29x 2026-11-07 14:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=t-spawn) [Slingshot | Phoenix agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/slingshot-phoenix) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $5.79 8.27 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Slingshot | Phoenix agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/slingshot-phoenix) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $25.26 36.09 coins $5.79 8.27 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Street Soldier | Phoenix agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/street-soldier-phoenix) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $10.33 14.76 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Street Soldier | Phoenix agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/street-soldier-phoenix) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $10.33 14.76 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Ground Rebel | Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $8.46 12.09 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Ground Rebel | Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $8.46 12.09 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Ground Rebel | Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $8.46 12.09 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Street Soldier | Phoenix agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/street-soldier-phoenix) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $25.26 36.09 coins $10.33 14.76 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Slingshot | Phoenix agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/slingshot-phoenix) [AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson) $25.26 36.09 coins $5.79 8.27 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [Street Soldier | Phoenix agent · distinguished](https://gambatracker.com/items/street-soldier-phoenix) Hidden $25.26 36.09 coins $10.33 14.76 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $25.26 | 90.90% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.52 | 90.90% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.68 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.7% classified 2.8% extraordinary 0.1% rare 0.1% restricted 0.5% mil spec 2.8% distinguished 25.0% blue 35.0% violet 30.0% best hit $1,054 (41.02x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt