---
title: "Tamed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Tamed ($54.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds, observed 104.01% over 122 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Tamed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Tamed

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed?window=all)

Price · $54.45 · 77.78 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $49.50 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 104.01% · 122 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 57 openings · below min

30 days · 104.01% ±38.12 122 openings

since tracking started · 104.01% ±38.12 122 openings

-0.5% 147.8% 296.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed?window=24h) | 4 | 87.72% ±207.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed?window=7d) | 57 | 100.77% ±55.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed) | 122 | 104.01% ±38.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/tamed?window=all) | 122 | 104.01% ±38.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 128 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,365 6,235 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Virtus.Pro (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $4,305 6,150 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $310 443 coins | 18.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $174 249 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $105 150 coins | 6.4% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.56× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 10.8% | $91.70 131 coins | 20.1% | 20 | 13.9 | 1.44× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $75.60 108 coins | 7.6% | 9 | 6.4 | 1.41× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 10.0% | $49.33 70.47 coins | 10.0% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $48.19 68.84 coins | 9.7% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $30.46 43.51 coins | 9.2% | 18 | 19.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) | 15.0% | $20.69 29.56 coins | 6.3% | 16 | 19.2 | 0.83× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $13.01 18.59 coins | 2.6% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 18.0% | $10.81 15.44 coins | 3.9% | 19 | 23.0 | 0.82× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=tamed)

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $20.69 29.56 coins 0.38x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $48.19 68.84 coins 0.89x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $30.46 43.51 coins 0.56x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $54.45 77.78 coins $91.70 131 coins 1.68x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $20.69 29.56 coins 0.38x 2026-11-09 13:53 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $49.33 70.47 coins 0.91x 2026-11-09 13:53 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $49.33 70.47 coins 0.91x 2026-11-09 13:53 UTC

[Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) [Heego](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Heego) $54.45 77.78 coins $30.46 43.51 coins 0.56x 2026-11-09 13:53 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $75.60 108 coins 1.39x 2026-11-08 22:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Watchdog (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) Hidden $54.45 77.78 coins $20.69 29.56 coins 0.38x 2026-11-08 22:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $54.45 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $54.20 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $55.23 | 90.91% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.1% legendary 0.0% covert 28.8% extraordinary 13.1% classified 15.0% mil spec 25.0% restricted 18.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt